TJX · US
TJX.US: Q2 FY27 $15.2B — comps +4% & FY EPS raise
TJX printed Q2 FY27 on 2026-08-19: net sales $15.18B (+5%), comps +4% (above plan); GAAP EPS $1.36 / adj. $1.22 (ex $0.14 net tariff refunds). FY adj. EPS raised to $5.15–$5.20; long-term store target 7,500. See TGT, WMT.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/tjx-us-research#thesis
Latest print snapshot
- Q2 net sales
- USD 15.2B
- Comps
- 0
- Adj. GM
- 0.3
- Adj. EPS
- USD 1.22
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
TJX is the global off-price apparel/home leader (TJ Maxx / Marshalls / HomeGoods). Formal FY2027 Q2 (ended 2026-08-01, printed 2026-08-19): net sales $15.18B (+5%), comps +4% (above plan); GAAP pretax 13.3% / adj. 11.9% (+50bp); GAAP EPS $1.36 / adj. $1.22 (+11%) (ex $0.14 net tariff refunds). Marmaxx comps only +1% (below plan); HomeGoods / Canada / International +6–7% offset. FY comps still +3–4%; adj. EPS raised to $5.15–$5.20; long-term store target 7,500. Trade-down + treasure-hunt intact, but Marmaxx needs to reaccelerate. See HD, TGT, WMT.
Business
Model: off-price buying. Opportunistic branded goods, typically 20–60% below full-price comparables. Entity: The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX). No material disposal in 24–36m; perimeter is 5,200+ stores plus limited e-commerce.
Flagships: (1) Marmaxx U.S. ($9.11B, comps +1%); (2) HomeGoods ($2.51B, comps +7%); (3) International (Canada comps +6%, Europe/Australia +7%).
Edge: buyer scale and assortment flexibility; treasure-hunt traffic; store-open machine. Gap: fashion miss/inventory risk; rich multiple.
Strategy: global openings, defend merchandise margin, buybacks. Q2 +23 stores to 5,285; FY28 store growth steps to 4%, long-term target 7,500.
Strategy
| Pillar / phase | Detail |
|---|---|
| Off-price 寻宝 / 价值使命 | 品牌货 20–60% 低于正价可比；Q1 全事业部交易笔数上升。KPI：同店、客流、平均篮。 |
| 买手灵活与商品利润率 | Q1 GM 31.3%（+180bp），商品利润率 + 运费/套保 + 杠杆。KPI：merchandise margin、库存/店。 |
| 开店与全球份额 | Q1 净增 48 店至 5,262；FY27 同店指引上修至 +3–4%。KPI：净开店、Marmaxx/HomeGoods 同店。 |
| 回购 / 股息 | Q1 回馈 $1.1B；FY27 回购区间上修至 $2.75–3.0B。KPI：回购执行、OCF。 |
Value chain
Midstream discount retail. Upstream: brand excess, cancelled orders, imported apparel/home. Downstream: value-seeking consumers. Profit is buyer spread × turns.
Concentration: Top1/Top5 N/A. Fragmented, cash/card settlement. Geography: U.S. core plus CA/EU/AU.
Supply-chain risks: (1) sourcing/tariffs; (2) freight/fuel (Q1 hedge gain; company flags higher 2H fuel). Echoed in Risks.
Customers
| Customer | Concentration/role | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 价值导向消费者（TJ Maxx / Marshalls） | 高度分散 | K 型消费下沉与 trade-down 受益；Marmaxx 同店 +6% |
| 家居价值客（HomeGoods / Homesense） | 分散 | HomeGoods 同店 +9%，弹性更高 |
| 国际客（TK Maxx 等） | 分散 | 国际同店 +4%；汇率对本季销售约 +1ppt |
| 最大客户占比 | N/A（零售未披露 Top1/Top5） | 无单一客户重大集中；即时结算为主 |
Corporate events
No liquidation/resumption. FY26 litigation settlement one-off, buyback authorization, Q1 beat-and-raise.
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 经营 | FY26 净销售 $60.4B（+7%），同店 +5%，稀释 EPS $4.87 | Off-price 份额年 |
| FY26 Q4 | 一次性 | 诉讼和解净利约 $0.15/股；全年调整 EPS $4.73 | 读 FY26 EPS 须剔除非经常 |
| 2026-02 | 资本 | 新授权回购至多 $3.0B | Q1 末可用约 $3.5B |
| 2026-05-20 | 财报 | Q1 FY27：同店 +6%，EPS $1.19，上修全年 | 交易与篮都强；商品利润率扩张 |
| 2026-08-19 | 财报 | Q2 FY27：净销售 $15.18B（+5%），同店 +4%，调整 EPS $1.22 | 超计划；Marmaxx 同店 +1% 被其他事业部对冲；全年调整 EPS 上修 |
Valuation
Price $150.85, mkt ~$167B (2026-08-17). TTM P/E ~30x, forward ~29x vs company FY27 EPS $5.08–$5.15, P/B ~16x, yield ~1.3%. Market prices durable comps + margin; premium vs TGT is wide. Trailing 1Y return still positive (illustrative).
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 现价 / 市值 | $150.85 / ~$167B | 2026-08-17 收盘；Q2 尚未打印 |
| TTM P/E | ~29.6x | EPS TTM ~$5.14（行情商） |
| Forward P/E | ~29x | 公司 FY27 EPS 指引 $5.08–5.15（官方） |
| P/B | ~16x | Q1 权益 $10.4B / ~11.2 亿稀释股本 |
| 盈利收益率 | ~3.4% | 1/29.6 |
| 股息率 | ~1.27% | 年化 $1.92；Q1 每股宣告 $0.48 |
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Q4 seasonal peak. Q2 FY27 +5% YoY / ~+6% QoQ. GAAP GM 33.4% (adj. 31.4%, ~200bp tariff-refund benefit).
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health
Q2 OCF $2.2B. Cash $6.0B. Buybacks $798M + dividends $529M. Auditor PwC; unqualified expected. Verdict: healthy.
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 健康（净现金） | Q2 现金 $6.0B；OCF $2.2B 覆盖回购+股息 |
| 经营现金流（OCF） | Q2 $2.2B | 来源 TJX 2026-08-19 PR；股东回报 $1.3B |
| 有息债 vs 现金 | 现金 $6.0B | 本 PR 强调现金与回购；净债以最新 10-Q 为准 |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | 回购 510 万股 / $798M；股息 $529M |
| 库存 | $7.9B（+2%/店 报告口径） | 恒定汇率 +3%/店；买手货源充足 |
| 审计 / 持续经营 | PwC；无保留预期 | FY2026 10-K 无持续经营强调 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Comps +4% from transactions and basket (company). HomeGoods +7% remains strong; Marmaxx +1% was the miss (mgmt: Q3 start better). E-comm is a supplement. Contrast HD housing cycle vs TJX apparel/home hunt.
Q2 FY27 segment snapshot
| Segment / KPI | Value | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Marmaxx（美） | $9.109B / 同店 +1% / 调整分部利润率 14.2% | TJ Maxx+Marshalls+Sierra；低于公司计划 |
| HomeGoods（美） | $2.507B / 同店 +7% / 调整分部利润率 12.4% | 家居弹性；销售 +10% |
| TJX Canada | $1.470B / 同店 +6% / 调整分部利润率 16.3% | 恒定汇率销售 +8% |
| TJX International | $2.094B / 同店 +7% / 调整分部利润率 7.3% | 欧洲+澳洲；销售 +11% |
| 公司毛利率 / 税前利润率 | GAAP GM 33.4%（调整 31.4%）；税前 13.3%（调整 11.9%） | 关税退税净利 $219M；SG&A 调整 19.7% |
Competition
Peers: Ross, Target, Walmart. Strengths: freshness and price. Weaknesses: 30x leaves little room; ROST price competition. One-liner: trade-down favors TJX; share is a buying, not advertising, game.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | GM | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 全球 off-price 龙头 | Q1 31.3% | 买手规模、寻宝、全渠道交易正增长 | 估值溢价；库存机会不可线性外推 |
| Ross (ROST) | 美国 off-price 第二极 | 相近量级 | 西海岸密度、价格 | 国际与家居组合弱于 TJX |
| Target (TGT) | 中产可选；非 off-price | Q1 29.0% | 设计感与数字化 | 周期弹性大、客流曾连续负 |
| Walmart (WMT) | 价值综合零售 | 更低 | 食品客流与价格信誉 | 时尚寻宝体验弱 |
Management
Ernie Herrman (CEO/President), Carol Meyrowitz (Executive Chair), John Klinger (CFO). No material disclosed 24m changes. Stability: steady.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executive Chair | Carol Meyrowitz | 长期 | 期间无重大披露变动 |
| CEO / President | Ernie Herrman | 2016 CEO | 期间无重大披露变动 |
| EVP / CFO | John Klinger | CFO | 期间无重大披露变动 |
Outlook
Watch Q3 comps +2–3% and adj. EPS $1.30–$1.32; whether Marmaxx reaccelerates. FY adj. pretax 12.0–12.1%, adj. EPS $5.15–$5.20. Further tariff refunds may hit Q3.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Q2 comps ≥3% and GM holds | Guide raise |
| Base | FY comps +3–4%, pretax ~12%, EPS at guide | Premium holds |
| Bear | Low-single comps, inventory write-down, tariff hit | Multiple compresses |
Risks
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 货源/买手执行与库存错配 | 中 | Q1 库存/店 +7% 反映机会，亦是滞销风险 |
| 关税与国际贸易政策 | 中 | off-price 更灵活但仍影响成本与货盘 |
| 估值溢价回吐 | 中 | ~30x 已定价持续同店与利润率 |
| 燃油 / 运费 / 套保反转 | 中低 | Q1 受益燃油套保；公司称下半年燃油成本更高 |
| 时尚偏好与竞争（ROST/BURL/WMT） | 中 | 寻宝差异化需持续到货 |
| 汇率与国际运营 | 低 | Q1 汇率对 EPS 约 +$0.01 |
| Risk | Level |
|---|---|
| Buying/inventory | Medium |
| Tariffs | Medium |
| Valuation | Medium |
| Fuel-hedge reversal | Low-medium |
| Competition | Medium |
Tracking
- Q3 comps +2–3% and adj. EPS $1.30–$1.32
- Marmaxx comps recovering from +1%
- Adj. GM 31.4% vs tariff-refund boost
- Inventory/store +2–3% vs comps; FY28 4% store growth
- $2.75–3.0B buyback
Confirm: Marmaxx recovers and adj. margins hold. Falsify: flagship comps slow again or inventory rises as comps fade.
References
- TJX Q1 FY27 results — https://investor.tjx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tjx-reports-q1-fy27-results-comp-sales-6-pretax-profit-margin
- Q1 FY27 press PDF — https://www.tjx.com/docs/default-source/investor-docs/quarterly-results/tjx-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-earnings-press-release.pdf
- Q2 FY27 date (2026-08-19) — https://investor.tjx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tjx-companies-inc-report-q2-fy27-results-august-19-2026
- FY26 Q4/year — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000004/tjxq4fy26earningspressrele.htm
- IR — https://www.tjx.com/investors
- See HD · TGT · WMT · COST · AMZN
Not investment advice.
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