0433.HK · Hong Kong
0433.HK North Mining: pure Mo mine after restructuring clean-up
North Mining is a Luonan Mo platform post liquidation–resumption–restart–disposal. 2025 continuing revenue ~HK$1.155B, attributable profit ~HK$229M; PE ~3.5x / PB ~2.5x (2026-08-11). Discount reflects liquidity, customer concentration, going-concern emphasis. See nonferrous.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/north-mining-0433-research#thesis
Snapshot (2026-08-11)
- Stance
- Cautiously constructive
- P/E (attrib.)
- ~3.5x
- P/B
- ~2.5x
- Market cap
- ~HK$0.81B
- 2025 attrib. profit
- ~HK$229M
- Close
- HKD 0.054
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
North Mining has completed the full clean-up path: liquidation risk → debt-to-equity resumption → mine restart → disposal of loss-making chemicals. It is now effectively a Luonan (Shaanxi) Jiulong molybdenum mine + concentrator platform. 2025 continuing revenue ~HK$1.155B, attributable profit ~HK$229M, mining GM ~47%, interest-bearing debt down to ~HK$27M.
The market prices it at ~3–4x earnings (close HK$0.054 on 2026-08-11; mkt ~HK$0.81B). The discount mainly reflects current ratio <1, auditor going-concern emphasis, ~half of revenue tied to “Customer A”, commodity beta, and illiquidity. Bull case: stable volumes + molybdenum not collapsing + post-disposal NAV repair. Bear case: key customer / price drawdown pierces a thin cash buffer. Treat as a high-risk cyclical resource tracker, not an unconditional value stock.
Business
Model: Mo mining, concentrating, and moly concentrate sales (by-products sulfuric acid, iron concentrate); some concentrate toll-processed into ferromoly for better margins.
Flagships: moly concentrate (~45–50% grade); ferromoly extension.
Competitiveness: (1) high-GM single-mine structure (~47%) already delivered a full year of profit; (2) post-restructuring debt is tiny and the perimeter is clean (pure Mo mine).
Strategy (12–24m): pure Mo platform + stable output/efficiency + ESG/automation + selective resource expansion. Circular confirms long-term mining focus; no intent to sell the core mine.
Entity / boundary: Main Board 0433.HK; Bermuda domicile / HK operations; core asset Luonan Jiulong Mining (Wanghegou Mo mine, commonly ~81% owned). Shares ~15.002B post 2025-08 subscription. Do not confuse with A-share “Northern Copper” etc. After completing the Julong Investment disposal on 2026-03-25, continuing ops are pure mining.
Strategy pillars
| Pillar | Content |
|---|---|
| 主业定位 | 维持安全、高效、高产量采矿为核心；长期发展采矿，无意出售主矿 |
| 已完成动作 | 2026-03 剥离久龙投资（化工/铝贸），资源与带宽回灌采矿 |
| 运营升级 | 自动化、ESG；升级采矿作业机器系统 |
| 产量规划 | 2025–27 年钼精粉年产量各约 6,000 吨（产能上限约 6,500 吨） |
| 产品延伸 | 部分精粉经分包加工为钼铁以提高利润率 |
| 财务配套 | 成本控制、善用采矿现金流、必要时再融资、加强 IR 与管治 |
| 外延择机 | 扩大矿产资源（方向性，无具体并购时间表） |
Value chain
Upstream resource (micro single-mine). Upstream: licenses and mine/plant ops; downstream: ferromoly / steel chain. See nonferrous deep dive.
Customers
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 客户类型 | 钼铁加工、钢铁制造等（未具名） | 披露口径 |
| 最大「客户 A」 | 约占持续经营收益 48%（约 5.56 亿港元） | 关键集中度风险 |
| 五大客户合计 | 约 68% | 高度集中 |
| 结算 | 多数现款；优质客户账期 ≤30 日 | |
| 地域 | 收益几乎全部来自中国内地 | |
| 未来展望 | 仍锚定钼铁—钢铁链；集中度难迅速下降 | 官方未公布新客户名单 |
Supply-chain risks: (1) Customer A ~48% of continuing revenue; (2) safety permit expires 2027 and single-mine outage risk — echoed in #risks.
Corporate events
Four-year arc: near-delisting debt crisis → Huatun injection / debt-to-equity resumption → permit renewal and mine restart → chemicals disposal back to pure mining.
Corporate events (2022–2026)
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-16 | 危机 | 高等法院颁令清盘；其后委任共同清盘人 | 上市地位与偿债危机顶点 |
| 2022-09-27 | 危机 | 提交复牌建议书 | 资本重组 + 投资者认购 + 债权人计划框架成型 |
| 2022-11-25 | 危机 | 上市委员会决定除牌 | 进入复核程序 |
| 2023-02-10 | 重组 | 钼矿采矿牌照续至 2034-02-22 | 主业合法开采基础恢复 |
| 2023-02-21 | 重组 | 与华豚订立有条件重组协议 | 注资 + 债转股路径明确 |
| 2023-03-08 | 重组 | 上市复核委员会推翻除牌；补救期至 2023-09-30 | 获得最后窗口 |
| 2023-09 | 重组 | 20 合 1 削资；法院搁置清盘；向债权人发行约 110.87 亿股 | 危机期约 17 亿级债项大体出清；确认重组亏损约 13.4 亿 |
| 2023-10-03 | 重组 | 股份恢复买卖 | 复牌完成 |
| 2024-10 | 复产 | 安许证续至 2027-10-17；洛南矿全面复产 | 停产近三年后重新贡献产量 |
| 2025 全年 | 兑现 | 钼精粉销量约 7,070 吨；归母溢利约 2.29 亿 | 经营拐点确认 |
| 2025-08-18 | 融资 | 发行约 24.91 亿股，净额约 0.75 亿 | 补充营运资金与还贷 |
| 2026-03-25 | 聚焦 | 完成剥离久龙投资（化工/铝贸） | 战略上成为纯钼矿上市公司 |
Valuation
Price as-of 2026-08-11 close HK$0.054 (~−16.9% vs prior close 0.065 on volume). Multiples below use 0.054; at 0.065, PE/PB would be ~20% higher. The market is pricing a “post-turnaround micro Mo mine + liquidity/going-concern discount.”
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 市值 | 约 8.10 亿港元 | 150.02 亿股 × 0.054（2026-08-11 收盘） |
| P/E（归母 2.29 亿） | 约 3.5x | 静态归母口径 |
| P/E（持续经营归母） | 约 3.3x | 更贴近纯采矿 |
| P/B（归母权益 3.28 亿） | 约 2.5x | BPS ≈ 0.0219 港元 |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 28%–30% | 1/PE；高收益对应高风险溢价 |
| 看穿 P/B（剥离备考归母约 7.06 亿） | 约 1.1x | 更接近资产修复后的合理锚 |
| 远期 P/E · 基准 | 约 3–4x | 假设归母溢利维持 2.0–2.5 亿 |
| 远期 P/E · 悲观（量价 −30%） | 约 7–11x | 溢利或降至 0.8–1.2 亿 |
| 远期 P/E · 乐观 | 约 2.3–2.7x | 溢利约 3.0–3.5 亿 |
~3y valuation/return series (many pre-profit PE points N/A; dividend ~0):
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Public disclosure is mostly annual/semi-annual. Semi-annual series below includes approximate splits — defer to audited continuing-ops figures (2024 revenue HK$116M → 2025 HK$1.155B).
Continuing revenue · semi-annual (approx splits)
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Mining gross margin · semi-annual
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Verdict: sub-healthy but improving sharply — earnings power and debt service improved; balance sheet still weak (current ratio <1, going-concern emphasis). Crisis “can’t repay debt” has shifted to working-capital and commodity volatility risk.
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 亚健康、显著改善中 | 盈利与有息债改善；流动性仍弱 |
| 持续经营收益 2025 | 11.55 亿港元 | 2024：1.16 亿；约 +893% |
| 归母溢利 2025 | 2.29 亿港元 | 2024：亏损 0.68 亿；扭亏 |
| 采矿毛利率 | 约 46.8% | 2024：47.0%；高毛利稳定 |
| 经营现金流净额 2025 | 1.55 亿港元 | 仍为正；合约负债回落占用营运资金 |
| 资本开支 2025 | 约 0.43 亿港元 | 2024：约 1.27 亿 |
| 银行及其他借款 | 约 0.27 亿港元 | 2024：约 4.27 亿；现金约 0.40 亿基本可覆盖 |
| 流动比率（剔持售） | 约 0.44 | 流动资产约 1.58 亿 vs 流动负债约 3.59 亿 |
| 合约负债 / 其他应付 | 约 1.37 亿 / 1.22 亿 | 预收需交货消化 |
| 核数师意见 2025 | 无保留 + 持续经营重大不确定性强调 | 较 2024「不发表意见」已上修 |
| 剥离后备考净资产 | 显著改善 | 通函：净负债→净资产；归母权益约 1.15→7.06 亿 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
2025 was volume-led (~7,070t concentrate vs ~714t in 2024); ASP slightly higher; GM stable ~47%.
2025 volume/price/cost
| Item | Value | Vs | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 钼精粉销量 | 约 7,070 吨 | 2024：714 吨 | 量的弹性主导业绩 |
| 销售均价 | 约 14.1 万港元/吨 | 2024：13.6 万 | |
| 采矿毛利 | 5.40 亿 / 46.8% | 0.55 亿 / 47.0% | 高毛利结构稳定 |
| 持续经营除税前溢利 | 4.54 亿港元 | 2024：亏损 4.12 亿 | 经营自我造血成立 |
Core assets & reserves
No fresh independent recoverable reserve report. Anchor investment on mining CGU use-value floor ~HK$0.9B+, not headline in-situ metal gross value.
Assets & reserves
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 采矿牌照 | 至 2034-02 | |
| 安全生产许可 | 至 2027-10 | 到期续期是关键跟踪点 |
| 历史资源（官网） | 矿石约 1.21 亿吨；钼金属约 9.8 万吨 | 平均品位约 0.081%；基准日未在年报更新 |
| 通函技术口径 | 剩余钼精粉当量估 >13 万吨 | 至 2025-06 累计生产精粉约 4.5 万吨量级 |
| 产能规划 | 日处理原矿约 1 万吨；精粉年产能上限约 6,500 吨 | 公司估 2025–27 年产量各约 6,000 吨 |
| 采矿权账面 | 4.84 亿港元（2025 末） | 历史累计摊销及减值约 26 亿量级后余额 |
| 采矿 CGU 账面 | 约 9.09 亿港元 | 2025 无减值 → 使用价值（折现 15.5%）≥ 账面 |
| 投资锚定 | CGU ≥约 9 亿港元使用价值下限 | 勿把百亿原地金属毛值当可采 NPV |
Competition
Large miners (Zijin, JXCC) are scale references only; 0433 is a micro single-mine Mo platform.
Strengths: turnaround delivered; high GM; tiny debt; clean Mo story.
Weaknesses: scale/liquidity; customer concentration; going-concern emphasis; micro-cap governance/volatility discount.
Peers (scale refs)
| Company | Position | GM | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0433 北方矿业 | 微型单一矿山 | ~47% | 扭亏兑现、有息债极低、纯钼矿故事清晰 | 流动性弱、客户集中、微盘股折价 |
| 紫金 601899 | 全球多金属龙头 | 高 | 规模/资源/一体化 | 环节不同，非直接同业 |
| 江铜 600362 | 铜冶炼龙头 | 中 | 冶炼规模与渠道 | 与钼矿采选可比性有限 |
Management
Management
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 / 关键高管 | 以最新年报为准 | 重组后 | 重组与剥离期人事需逐季核对年报；勿假设大型国企式平稳 |
| 财务负责人 | 以最新年报为准 | — | 关注再融资与管治披露 |
Stability: still transitional post restructuring/disposal; continuity hinges more on mine ops and financing discipline than a steady-state professional-manager assumption.
Outlook
Commodity demand: China ~half of global Mo consumption; 2025 domestic use ~152kt metal, +~9–11% YoY, above output (imports fill the gap). Steel Mo bidding and “upgrade to specialty steels” support unit intensity; supply is inelastic → tight balance supports the price mid. For 0433, macro demand is not the bottleneck — delivery depends on own volumes and the key customer.
Company: 2025–27 plan ~6,000t/year each; watch whether volumes hold the 2025 run-rate, cash/current ratio, and whether the auditor drops the emphasis.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Stable volumes + Mo not collapsing + better customer mix | Attributable profit ~HK$0.30–0.35B; fwd PE ~2.3–2.7x |
| Base | Volumes near plan, mid Mo price, Customer A renews | Profit ~HK$0.20–0.25B; fwd PE ~3–4x |
| Bear | −30% volume/price or key-customer loss / outage | Profit maybe HK$0.08–0.12B; fwd PE ~7–11x; liquidity stress rises |
Bull points: clean-up done; high-GM year delivered; tiny debt; tight domestic Mo; very low absolute multiple; post-disposal pro-forma equity repair.
Bear / discount points: weak liquidity; concentration; commodity/single-mine risk; going-concern emphasis remains; micro-cap discount.
Risks
Key risks (severity)
| Risk | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 客户集中 | 高 | 单一客户约 48% 收益；流失或压价直接冲击盈利与现金流 |
| 商品价格 | 高 | 钼价高位回撤将压缩毛利；存在均值回归可能 |
| 流动性 / 持续经营 | 中高 | 流动比率 <1、现金薄；核数师仍强调重大不确定性 |
| 证照与安全环保 | 中 | 安许证 2027 到期；事故或停产对单一矿山是致命冲击 |
| 产量兑现 | 中 | 规划约 6,000 吨/年；低于 2025 实际 7,070 吨则盈利下修 |
| 股权稀释 | 中 | 若再融资 / 大比例供股，EPS 与 PB 被摊薄 |
| 剥离追索 / 或有负债 | 低–中 | 取决于法律执行与弥偿 |
| 治理与流通 | 中 | 微市值波动大（如 2026-08-11 单日约 −17%） |
Tracking list
For the next interim/annual:
- Concentrate volumes/ASP vs 2025 run-rate (or ~6,000t plan)
- Current ratio >1; cash covering 3–6 months opex
- Customer A share change
- Whether auditor keeps going-concern emphasis
- Post-disposal recourse/contingent liabilities; CapEx and NCI dividends vs FCF
Confirm: volumes hold, cash rebuilds, emphasis removed, customer mix improves.
Falsify: outage, key-customer loss, deep Mo price drop.
References
- North Mining 2025 results — https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0401/2026040100236_c.pdf
- North Mining 2025 annual report — https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0430/2026043000917_c.pdf
- VSD circular / completion (Julong disposal, 2026-02 / 2026-03) — HKEX search 0433
- 2023 restructuring / resumption announcements — HKEX
- Nonferrous metals H2’26; JXCC; Zijin
- Public Mo market research (broker/Antaike/IMOA-type sources for demand context only)
Not investment advice. Micro-cap commodity equities are highly volatile; defer to latest filings and prices. Aligned with desktop deep note (data as of 2026-08-11).
Comments
Sign in to comment