CU, AL, 601899.SH, 603993.SH, 600362.SH, 601600.SH · Commodities · A-shares
Nonferrous metals deep dive · 2026 H2 update (Aug 2026)
Cu near $14k: ICSG surplus vs US stockpiling; Al mid ~$3300; Li/Co/Sn diverge. Links copper S/D and battery packs. #references updated.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/nonferrous-metals-h2-2026#thesis
Aug 2026 snapshot
- LME Cu (approx)
- ~$14,000/t
- ICSG 2026 balance
- +96 kt surplus (global)
- Al mid (approx)
- ~$3,300/t
- Style
- Elevated divergence
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Industry deep-dive refresh (~Aug 2026). Not equity §A; see company packs for names. Guides defer to issuer filings.
Thesis
H2’26 nonferrous = elevated range + divergence: copper near/at $14,000/t as ICSG’s paper surplus coexists with US stockpiling that tightens ex-US availability; aluminum supported by China’s capacity ceiling and overseas disruptions ($3,300/t mid); lithium toward tight balance via ESS; cobalt bid-up on DRC quotas; tin high-beta as a ‘compute metal’. Equity focus remains self-sufficiency + volume: Zijin as core, CMOC for Cu/Co beta, aluminum for ceiling rents.
See copper S/D · battery competition · copper brief.
Macro: same three drivers, new price regime
Supply rigidity (grades, CapEx, resource nationalism) + structural demand (grid/EV/ESS/AI power) + liquidity/tariff/regional inventory dislocations. US copper stockpiling can coexist with an ICSG global surplus print.
By-metal frame
By-metal frame (H2’26)
| Metal | Supply | Demand | Balance | Price frame | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 铜 | 矿端扰动+品位下行；精矿紧 | 电网/AI电力/EV | ICSG 全球过剩 vs 美国外紧 | 现货~$14k；H2 中枢参考 13–15k | 超配 |
| 铝 | 中国产能天花板；海外电力/地缘扰动 | 光伏/新能源/铝代铜/出口 | 低库存+高盈利 | 中枢 ~$3,300/t 宽幅震荡 | 超配 |
| 锂 | CapEx 高峰过后增速放缓 | 储能+EV | 过剩→紧平衡 | 中枢上移、弹性大 | 标配→超配 |
| 钴 | 刚果（金）出口配额 | 电池/合金 | 供给收缩偏紧 | 易涨难跌 | 超配（弹性） |
| 锡 | 缅甸/印尼/刚果扰动 | AI硬件焊料/半导体 | 显性库存低位 | 高弹性 | 主题/卫星 |
| 镍 | 印尼 RKAB/成本 | 不锈钢+电池 | 纯镍库存压制 | 成本支撑、上有顶 | 标配偏谨慎 |
| 金 | 矿山增量有限 | 央行购金+避险 | 货币属性主导 | 趋势偏强 | 对冲 |
Priority: Cu ≈ Al > Co/Sn/strategic > Li > Ni; gold as hedge.
Copper: new platform, two balances
Spot near $14k/t (early Aug 2026). ICSG: +96 kt surplus 2026 / +377 kt 2027. Market trades ex-US scarcity from US import absorption. H2 mid often cited ~$13–15k/t if tariffs don’t shock. Full scenarios: copper deep-dive.
Aluminum: China capacity ceiling + overseas disruptions; mid ~$3,300/t. Lithium: ESS pulls toward tight balance. Cobalt: DRC quotas. Tin: supply shocks + AI hardware, low inventories.
Value chain & stock filter
Resource > integrated > smelting/processing. Score self-sufficiency, visible volume, cost curve, metal mix, valuation vs volume guidance. Materials: Huayou; batteries: competition.
China miners snapshot
¥ bn. 2025 = annual; H1’26 mostly profit alerts (secondary).
China miners NI snapshot (¥ bn)
| Name | Code | Metals | 2025 NI | H1’26 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 紫金矿业 | 601899 | 铜+金+锂 | ~518 | ~391（+68%） | 全球资源+放量 |
| 洛阳钼业 | 603993 | 铜+钴+金 | 203 | 155–165（+79%~90%） | 铜钴量价 |
| 中国铝业 | 601600 | 铝一体化 | ~127 | 112–122（+58%~73%） | 天花板红利 |
| 江西铜业 | 600362 | 铜冶炼加工 | 71.3 | 75.5–85（+81%~104%） | 铜价β |
| 云铝股份 | 000807 | 水电铝 | — | 75–78（+171%~182%） | 绿电成本 |
| 华友钴业 | 603799 | 镍钴锂材料 | 61.1 | Q1归母~25（高增） | 材料链 |
Packs: Zijin · CMOC · JXCC · Chalco · Huayou.
Equity views
Zijin — core. CMOC — Cu/Co satellite. Chalco / Yunnan Al — ceiling rents. JXCC — Cu beta. Gold miners — portfolio stabilizer.
Scorecard
| Name | Resource | Growth | Cost | Cycle | Val | Risk | Total | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zijin | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 28 | Core |
| CMOC | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 25 | Satellite |
| Chalco | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25 | Dividend |
| Yunnan Al | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | Al beta |
| JXCC | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | Cu beta |
| Huayou | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | Materials |
| Shandong Gold | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | Hedge |
Portfolio templates
| Style | Mix | Goal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive | Zijin 50% + Chalco 25% + gold 25% | Drawdown control |
| Balanced | Zijin 40% + CMOC 25% + Yunnan Al 20% + JXCC 15% | Growth+cycle |
| Aggressive | CMOC 35% + Zijin 30% + Yunnan Al 20% + Sn/small-metal 15% | Upside |
H2 outlook
Watch US Cu trade policy, COMEX–LME rebalancing, Chile/Peru/DRC mines, China grid vs property, Al operating rates/exports, Li inventory, DRC Co quotas, Sn inventories.
Risks
References
- On-site copper deep-dive — https://investor-web.linchen19921016.workers.dev/r/copper-supply-demand-outlook-2026
- ICSG surplus path — https://www.scrapmonster.com/news/copper/icsg-forecasts-global-copper-surplus-through-2027-2026-6-30/99457
- Copper toward $14,000 (Bloomberg, Aug 2026) — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-04/copper-marches-closer-to-14-000-as-flows-to-us-tighten-market
- Broker H2 outlook (Cu 13–15k / Al ~3300, via Sina) — http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/stock/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/search/rptid/837301511096/index.phtml
- Guolian Minsheng mid-year metals strategy — http://www.huiyunyan.com/doc-26bb6456cc0d66b14d73cc22c7749bda.html
- Supply constraint + demand resilience PDF — https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202606121823512904_1.pdf
- LME Copper — https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/LME-Copper
- Battery competition — https://investor-web.linchen19921016.workers.dev/r/china-power-battery-competition-2026
- Equities: Zijin / CMOC / Chalco / JXCC / Huayou (on-site packs)
Not investment advice. Forecasts and ICSG balances revise; defer to primaries.
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