601899.SH, 2899.HK · A-shares · Hong Kong
601899.SH Zijin: mined-copper quarters vs overseas majors
Zijin H1'26 mined Cu 534 kt (−6%); plan 1.20 Mt (2026) → 1.50–1.60 Mt (2028). Six-quarter volumes vs BHP/Codelco/FCX/Glencore; Julong/Zhuno/Kamoa drive the catch-up. See nonferrous.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/zijin-601899-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- A-share (~8/19)
- CNY 32.76
- Market cap (approx)
- CNY 871.4B
- 2025 parent NI
- CNY 51.8B
- H1'26 NI guide
- CNY 39.1B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Zijin Mining (601899.SH / 2899.HK) is a global copper–gold–lithium major. 2025 revenue ¥349.079B (+14.96%), parent NI ¥51.777B (+61.55%), ROE 33%; H1'26 guide parent NI ~¥39.1B (+68% vs ¥23.3B), adjusted ~¥37.9B (+75% vs ¥21.6B), with Q2 adjusted ~¥19.4B (+5% QoQ vs Q1 ¥18.5B). Forbes 2026 Global 2000: #181 overall, #1 gold miner, #3 metal miner globally.
As of 2026-08-19 the A-share is ~¥32.76 / mkt ~¥871B (~26.6B shares)—about 27% off the ~¥44.94 year high, still a cyclical divergence of rising earnings vs soft price. Low PE prices forward metal expectations, not trailing profits. Sector frame: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
Business
Model: Global mining and smelting — copper and gold as the core, lithium as the growth wing. Revenue from concentrate/metal sales and processing; earnings highly levered to metal prices and volumes.
Flagships:
- Copper — volume and profit backbone; H1 mined Cu 480 kt excl. Kamoa equity (+5%), consolidated 534 kt (−6%, only major metal with volume down).
- Gold — high earnings torque; H1 mined Au 47 t (+15%); gold often moves the equity more than trailing Cu profits.
- Lithium — H1 LCE 43 kt (+514% vs ~7 kt); ramp makes lithium a visible new growth curve while prices remain soft.
Competitiveness: (1) multi-mine cost/scale edge via brownfield upgrades; rare metals (Mo/W/Sn), sulphur concentrate and sulphuric acid profits up sharply; (2) faster overseas M&A and commissioning vs most domestic peers, with 2026-07 termination of the ~¥28B Allied Gold full buyout signaling CapEx discipline.
Strategy (12–24m): keep commissioning overseas Cu/Au and ramping Li; shift from volume+price to volume offsetting flat/soft prices. Volumes and higher product prices support 2025–H1'26 earnings highs; the ~¥18.2B Chifeng Gold control deal, if closed, would deepen gold consolidation.
Strategy pillars
| Pillar | Detail |
|---|---|
| 主业定位 | 全球化铜金为主；锂（当量碳酸锂）进入产量高增曲线，成为第三成长翼 |
| 产量 / 产能 | H1'26：金 47 吨（+15%）、铜（不含卡莫阿权益）48 万吨（+5%）、锂 4.3 万吨 LCE（+514%）；量增对冲价平 |
| 产品延伸 | 矿产销售 + 冶炼加工；稀贵金属（Mo/W/Sn）、硫精矿与硫酸利润贡献抬升 |
| 资本纪律 | 终止约 280 亿 Allied Gold 全面收购；高盈利期控制并购/CapEx，守住 ROE |
| 外延 | 推进约 182 亿赤峰黄金控股权收购（关注交割风险）；海外资源并购更选择性 |
Entity boundary: A+H resource major (601899.SH / 2899.HK); global mine portfolio. Material corporate actions in-period are summarized below.
Value chain
Position: upstream resources + midstream smelting; earn resource rent and processing spread.
| Side | Counterparties | Dependence |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | Licenses, contractors, critical mine equipment & energy | Host-country policy and equipment lead times |
| Downstream | Smelters, Cu/Au buyers, battery-materials clients | Manufacturing, grid, and new-energy demand |
Customer structure
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 客户类型 | 冶炼厂、精炼铜/金买家、新能源材料客户 | 未披露单一大客户占比 |
| 客户集中度 | N/A（未具名 Top 客户占比） | 年报未披露前五大占比则写明未披露 |
| 地域 | 全球化销售 + 国内冶炼协同 | 需求绑制造业/电网/新能源 |
| 结算 / 账期 | 行业惯例（现货/长协混合） | 以公司披露为准 |
Customer concentration: Top-5 share not named when undisclosed; global sales diversify single-buyer risk but still bind manufacturing / new-energy cycles.
Supply-chain risks: (1) overseas permits/community/geopolitics; (2) equipment, logistics, and energy/ESG constraints — echoed in Risks.
Corporate events
2026 themes: strong H1 guide, overseas mega-deal brake, domestic Chifeng Gold control push, and Global 2000 ranking confirmation.
Corporate events (2026)
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 并购 | 拟约 182.6 亿元取得赤峰黄金（600988）控制权（协议收购 A 股 + 认购定向增发 H 股） | 国内金矿并表扩张；交割条件含反垄断与上交所审查，关注 2026-09 末前能否完成 |
| 2026-07-09 | 业绩 | 发布 2026 半年度业绩预增：归母约 391 亿（+68%）、扣非约 379 亿（+75%） | 正式中报待披露；高盈利延续，但属预告口径 |
| 2026-07 | 并购 | 终止对 Allied Gold（联合黄金）约 280 亿元级全面收购；改认购约 9.2% 股权作财务投资 | 海外大额金矿收购踩刹车；资本纪律信号，释放并购节奏弹性 |
| 2026 | 排名 | 福布斯 2026 Global 2000：全球第 181；全球金矿商第 1、金属矿商第 3 | 规模与行业地位再确认；不直接等同估值溢价 |
Price & valuation
On 2026-08-19 the A-share sat near ¥32.76, ~27% off the ~¥44.94 high. Trailing PE mid-teens; low forward PE prices softer metals. Market has shifted from current earnings to forward metal prices, CapEx returns, and deal closure risk.
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| P/E（TTM / 动态） | 约 14–17x | 市值约 8560 亿 / 2025 归母 517.77 亿 → 静态约 16.5x；动态更低 |
| P/B | 约 3.0–3.5x | 资源龙头溢价；以最新净资产口径 |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 6%–7% | 1/PE；周期顶部安全垫有限 |
| 股息率（示意） | 约 1.5%–2.5% | 视分红比例与股价 |
| 现价读法 | A 股约 32.2 元 | 自高点约 44.94 回撤约 40%；定价远期金属价格 |
~3y valuation / return series (illustrative public-market; div yield and trailing ann. return approximate):
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Eight-quarter revenue and gross-margin series with YoY and QoQ. Mining seasonality is milder than consumer, but maintenance and shipping can swing QoQ.
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Healthy — 2025 OCF ~¥75.43B remains the latest formal cash-flow print; H1'26 is still a preannouncement (formal interim pending), so audited H1 OCF is N/A. Watch debt, Chifeng closing cash, and CapEx discipline.
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 健康 | 高盈利 + 强 OCF；关注 CapEx/并购纪律 |
| 2026H1 披露状态 | 业绩预告（未审计） | 归母约 391 亿 / 扣非约 379 亿；正式半年度报告待披露，OCF/负债以正式中报为准 |
| 经营现金流 2025 | 754.3 亿元 | 仍为最新可用正式 OCF；现金创造与净利匹配良好 |
| 有息债 vs 现金 | 净负债可控（示意） | 并购扩张期有息债上升；赤峰黄金若交割将增加并表与现金支出 |
| 流动性 | 流动比率充足（示意） | 大型矿企营运资本波动；无公开危机信号 |
| 审计意见 | 无保留（常规） | 未见表述持续经营重大不确定性；以年报为准；H1 预告未经审计 |
| CapEx / 并购 | 选择性扩张 | 终止 Allied Gold 全面收购；赤峰黄金交割与锂爬坡仍为现金用途重点 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
H1 2026 (100% controlled + equity in associates/JVs): mined gold 47 t (+15%); mined copper 480 kt excl. Kamoa equity (+5%), consolidated 534 kt (−6%); mined silver 229 t (+2%); LCE 43 kt (+514%); zinc+lead 200 kt (flat). Drivers: higher product prices YoY; sharp profit gains in rare metals, sulphur concentrate, and sulphuric acid. Lithium’s volume ramp makes new-energy metals a visible second growth curve.
Key financials & production
| Item | Value | YoY | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue 2025 | ¥349.079B | +14.96% | Volume-led |
| Parent NI 2025 | ¥51.777B | +61.55% | Historic earnings peak |
| H1'26 NI guide | ~¥39.1B | +68% | Adj. NI ~¥37.9B (+75%); formal H1 report pending |
| H1'26 mined gold | 47 t | +15% | Controlled + equity basis |
| H1'26 mined copper | 480 kt excl. Kamoa equity / 534 kt consol. | +5% / −6% | Only major metal with consol. volume down |
| H1'26 LCE | 43 kt | +514% | vs ~7 kt; lithium as new growth curve |
| H1'26 Ag / Zn+Pb | 229 t / 200 kt | +2% / flat | Prices + rare metals / sulphur / acid profits up |
| OCF 2025 | ¥75.43B | — | Strong cash generation; H1 OCF N/A until formal report |
Mined copper quarterly volumes & expansion
Scope note: Zijin’s primary disclosed KPI is mined copper (metal in concentrate / cathode from mines), not cathode smelting capacity. Smelted copper is a midstream extension (~533 kt in 9M’25). Kamoa’s ~500 ktpa smelter poured first anode copper in Jan 2026 — equity-mine refining, not Zijin group cathode capacity.
Last six quarters of mined copper (10kt = 万吨, consolidated incl. Kamoa equity): 2025Q1 287.6 kt → Q2 279.3 → Q3 263.1 → Q4 ~260 → 2026Q1 259 (−9.9% YoY on Kamoa disruption) → Q2 ~275 (H1 534 − Q1). H1 total 534 kt (−6% YoY); excl. Kamoa equity 480 kt (+5%) — other mines are backfilling.
Mined copper · last 6Q (10kt = 万吨)
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Three-year plan (company announcement): mined copper ~1.09 Mt (2025) → 1.20 Mt (2026) → 1.50–1.60 Mt (2028), targeting top-3 global copper volumes. Key projects:
Copper expansion roadmap
| Project | Status | Volume / capacity | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 公司矿产铜规划 | 指引 | 2025 109 → 2026 120 → 2028 150–160 万吨 | 三年规划公告（2026-02-09）；目标进全球铜产量前 3 |
| 西藏巨龙铜矿二期 | 2026-01 建成投产 | 达产约 30–35 万吨/年；2026 计划约 30 万吨 | Q1'26 巨龙产铜约 6 万吨；爬坡中 |
| 朱诺铜矿 | 预计 2026 年底建成投产 | 规划达产约 7.6 万吨/年 | 近端增量项目 |
| 卡莫阿-卡库拉（刚果） | 矿震后复产 + 冶炼厂投产 | 2026 精矿含铜目标 38–42 万吨（100%）；2027 规划 50–54 万吨 | 配套约 50 万吨/年铜冶炼厂 2026-01 出阳极铜；权益并表扰动主因 |
| 塞尔维亚丘卡卢-佩吉 / 博尔等 | 在产 + 下部矿带推进 | 塞尔维亚板块约 29 万吨级规模（2025 目标口径） | 三大铜矿基地之一 |
| 冶炼产铜（精炼侧） | 运行中 | 2025 前三季冶炼产铜约 53.3 万吨 | 公司披露主轴是矿产铜；冶炼为加工延伸，勿与矿产铜混读 |
Near-term delivery hinges on Julong Phase II ramp (~300 kt planned for 2026), Zhuno start-up by YE26, and Kamoa recovery to 380–420 kt (100%). If H2 consolidated copper stabilizes, the 1.20 Mt guide remains catchable; otherwise Kamoa drag persists.
Competition
Domestic peers: CMOC, Jiangxi Copper, Huayou. Overseas copper majors: BHP, Codelco, Freeport, Glencore — figures below are mined / attributable copper (kt); FY vs calendar and equity vs 100% bases differ; focus on scale and growth direction.
Mined copper: Zijin vs overseas majors (kt)
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Overseas copper majors — volume comps
| Company | 2025 volume | Near-term guide | Growth narrative | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP | FY25 2017 kt（记录高） | FY26e 1800–2000 kt | 近端指引略降（智利品位） | Escondida 单矿体量全球第一；口径为公司财年 |
| Codelco（智利国有） | 1412 kt（含权益） | 中期稳产/略降压力 | 2025 −2% YoY | 品位下行 + 成本上升；C1 现金成本抬升 |
| Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | 约 1080 kt（权益口径） | Grasberg 地下矿节奏敏感 | 大体量但增速偏稳 | 印尼 Grasberg + 美洲资产；地缘/政策溢价 |
| 紫金矿业（self） | 109 万吨（约 1090 kt） | 2026 120 → 2028 150–160 万吨 | 2025→2028 CAGR 约 +11–14% | 全球矿产铜约第 4；规划进前 3；增量来自巨龙/朱诺/卡莫阿复产 |
| Glencore | 852 kt | 2026e 810–870 kt | 2025 −11% YoY | Collahuasi / Antamina 等品位与排序扰动 |
| Lens | Zijin | Overseas majors (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Absolute scale | ~1,090 kt — same band as FCX; below BHP/Codelco | BHP ~2,017; Codelco ~1,412; FCX ~1,080; Glencore ~852 |
| Growth narrative | Offensive: +10% in 2026; 1.50–1.60 Mt by 2028 | BHP/Glencore guides flat-to-down; Codelco grade pressure |
| Global share (~) | ~4.7% of ~23 Mt world mine output | BHP ~8.8%; Codelco ~6.1% |
| Differentiation | Multi-asset ramp (Tibet / DRC / Serbia); Au/Li hedges | Higher Chile/Indonesia single-asset concentration |
Strengths: planned Cu CAGR faster than most majors; Julong/Zhuno/Kamoa are trackable; top-ranked gold miner adds a second P&L engine.
Weaknesses: still behind BHP/Codelco in absolute tons; Kamoa equity swings quarterly volumes; equity hyper-sensitive to Au/Cu; overseas ESG/geopolitical premium.
Takeaway: the catch-up story is real, but pricing power sits in the metal — copper volume comps support a “global copper grower” framing; own as cycle beta, not a growth multiple.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | GM / margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 紫金矿业 601899 (self) | 矿产铜 ~109 万吨（2025），全球约第 4 | 矿山毛利率高位 | 2026–28 规划增速显著快于海外巨头；巨龙/朱诺/卡莫阿复产路径清晰 | 卡莫阿权益扰动；海外 ESG/地缘；commodity beta |
| BHP | FY25 2017 kt，全球第 1 | 低成本智利资产 | Escondida 规模与成本曲线；多元化对冲 | FY26 指引因品位略降；增长不如紫金激进 |
| Codelco | 2025 1412 kt，全球约第 2 | C1 成本抬升 | 智利国有铜矿巨头；资源底座深 | 品位下行、产量稳中偏降、债务与投资压力 |
| Freeport (FCX) | 2025 约 1080 kt，与紫金同量级 | Grasberg 高品位 | Grasberg + 美洲组合；美元资产 | 印尼政策/社区；增速偏稳 |
| Glencore | 2025 852 kt | 贸易+矿产 | 贸易网络与多元化 | 2025 铜产量 −11%；2026 指引仍偏谨慎 |
| 洛阳钼业 603993 | 铜钴量级全球前列 | 高（矿端） | 刚果铜钴成本曲线靠前 | 地缘集中度高 |
Management
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 / Chair | 陈景河 | 长期任职 | 期间无重大披露变动 |
| 总裁 / President | 邹来昌 | ~2020 | 期间无重大披露变动 |
| 财务总监 / CFO | 林红英 | 公开披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动 |
24m changes: No material disclosed turnover in Chair Chen Jinghe, President Zou Laichang, or CFO Lin Hongying.
Stability: Core bench long-tenured — stable. Watch M&A integration, deal closing, and CapEx discipline, not succession risk.
Outlook
Commodity demand: Global copper supported by grid, new energy, and AI-related power infra; gold tracks real rates / risk-off; lithium still tied to EV/storage near cycle lows, while company volumes are ramping steeply.
Volumes: Cu/Au/Li footprint keeps releasing; mined-copper plan 1.20 Mt (2026) → 1.50–1.60 Mt (2028) outpaces most majors, but near-term Kamoa drag remains — watch Julong Phase II, Zhuno start-up, and Kamoa recovery.
Prices: Gold’s correction is the main equity drag; copper is supported by manufacturing / new-energy demand but more volatile; lithium remains near cycle lows — volume first, price later.
Corporate actions: Ending the Allied Gold full buyout cuts a large overseas cash commitment; Chifeng Gold (~¥18.2B) closing risk is the near-term watchpoint.
Full-year 2026: If H2 metals stabilize, NI could approach or exceed ~¥70B; further price weakness would sharply slow growth. CapEx and M&A discipline in a high-earnings regime remain critical.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Gold stabilizes/rebounds; copper supported by new energy/AI; Li ramp delivers; Chifeng closes; 2026 NI ¥75B+ | Equity repairs toward ¥35–40 |
| Base | Metals range-bound; 2026 NI ¥65–70B; volumes keep growing; selective M&A | ¥28–38 range; hold for yield + cycle beta |
| Bear | Gold keeps falling; Cu/Li weaken; Chifeng fails or gets costlier; H2 NI declines QoQ | Breaks ¥22; earnings + multiple double-kill |
Track: COMEX gold / LME copper, quarterly volumes and AISC, CapEx and M&A/closing cadence, formal H1'26 results.
Risks
Risks (with severity)
| Risk | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 金属价格（金/铜/锂） | 高 | 股价核心驱动；金价回调已致约 27% 回撤（相对年初高点） |
| 海外地缘 / ESG / 社区 | 中高 | 矿权、许可与社区冲突可打断投产 |
| 高盈利期过度扩张 | 中 | CapEx/并购失序侵蚀 ROE |
| 汇率与资源国税费 | 中 | 海外利润折算与税费变化 |
| 关键设备 / 能耗环保 | 中 | 供应链约束回扣价值-chain |
| 并购整合 / 交割 | 中 | 赤峰黄金约 182 亿交割不确定；海外整合偏差可侵蚀回报 |
| 周期顶部盈利双杀 | 中高 | 金属下行期盈利 + 估值同步压缩 |
Tracking
Next interim / annual check:
- Quarterly mined copper vs 1.20 Mt FY26 guide; Julong Phase II / Zhuno / Kamoa recovery
- Formal H1'26: OCF still covering CapEx + dividends
- Chifeng Gold (~¥18.2B) closing progress and Allied Gold minority investment close
- COMEX gold / LME copper vs realized prices; Li sales and price beta
- Whether the volume gap vs BHP / Codelco / FCX narrows on the 2028 plan path
Confirm: consolidated Cu volumes stabilize, Julong ramps, OCF solid, metals stabilize, disciplined M&A.
Falsify: Kamoa recovery slip, deep Au/Cu selloff, major overseas stall, aggressive M&A crushing ROE.
References
- Zijin three-year (2026–2028) mined-product plan & 2035 vision (2026-02-09) — https://stockmc.xueqiu.com/202602/601899_20260209_LNWT.pdf
- Zijin 2025 Q3 report (quarterly mined Cu; smelted Cu) — https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-10-18/1224719363.PDF
- Zijin H1'26 earnings preannouncement (H1 mined Cu 534 kt) — https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/stock?stockCode=601899&orgId=gssh0601899
- HKEX overseas regulatory announcement (Julong online; Zhuno YE26) — https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0821/2026082101282_c.pdf
- BHP Operational Review FY25 (Cu 2,017 kt; FY26e 1,800–2,000 kt) — https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/media/reports-and-presentations/2025/250718_bhpoperationalreviewfortheyearended30june2025.pdf
- Glencore FY2025 Production Report (Cu 851.6 kt; 2026e 810–870 kt) — https://www.glencore.com/.rest/api/v1/documents/static/a8114247-02e8-4bd8-bc04-81f411ba631c/GLEN_2025-FY-Production-Report.pdf
- Codelco at a glance 2025 (Cu 1,412 kt) — https://codelco.com/sites/site/docs/20260330/20260330113940/codelco_at_a_glance_december_31__2025_production_restated.pdf
- Nonferrous deep-dive · Copper S&D · CMOC · FCX
Not investment advice. Mined copper ≠ cathode smelting capacity; peer tons mix FY/calendar and equity bases. Valuation series are illustrative. H1'26 figures are preannouncement; refresh after the formal interim.
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