601600.SH, 2600.HK · A-shares · Hong Kong
601600.SH / 2600.HK Chalco: steady primary Al profits
Chalco 2025 revenue ¥241.125B (+1.69%), parent NI ¥12.674B (+2.25%), pretax profit ~¥25.84B. As of 2026-08-05, A-share ~¥9.74 / mkt ~¥167.089B. Al price and power cost drive profits; capacity caps favor steady cash over hypergrowth. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/chalco-601600-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- A-share (2026-08-05)
- CNY 9.74
- Market cap (approx) · as of 2026-08-05
- CNY 167.1B
- 2025 parent NI
- CNY 12.7B
- 2025 pretax profit
- CNY 25.8B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Chalco (601600.SH / 2600.HK) is China's aluminum champion. 2025 revenue ¥241.125B (+1.69%), parent NI ¥12.674B (+2.25%). As of 2026-08-05, A-share ~¥9.74 / mkt ~¥167.089B.
Capacity caps favor steady cash and Al-price beta. Sector: nonferrous metals deep-dive.
Business
Model: Integrated alumina–primary Al–fabrication. Under capacity caps, earn Al-vs-cost spread and steady cash.
Flagships: primary aluminum, alumina, fabricated products.
Competitiveness: integration dampens purchased-alumina swings; capacity swaps and cost-curve position set medium-term share.
Strategy (12–24m): cost-curve and green power / capacity swaps; near-term steady growth, torque from Al mid-cycle.
Strategy pillars
| Pillar | Detail |
|---|---|
| 主业定位 | 氧化铝—电解铝—铝加工一体化 |
| 成本曲线 | 绿色电力与产能置换优化成本 |
| 产能约束 | 天花板下份额与现金优先于扩产叙事 |
| 回报 | 稳态现金与铝价 beta |
Entity boundary: 601600.SH / 2600.HK aluminum major. No material liquidation/resumption-type events.
Value chain
Position: midstream smelting with upstream alumina.
| Side | Counterparties | Dependence |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | Bauxite, power | Ore supply and power tariffs |
| Downstream | Construction, transport, packaging, new energy | Property and manufacturing demand |
Customer structure
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 客户类型 | 建筑、交通、包装、新能源用铝 | — |
| 客户集中度 | N/A（未具名） | 下游分散度通常高于矿山 |
| 上游 | 铝土矿 + 电力 | 议价关键 |
Customer concentration: not named; construction/transport/packaging relatively dispersed. Bauxite and power are key constraints.
Supply-chain risks: (1) power costs and dual energy controls; (2) bauxite import/supply shocks — echoed in Risks.
Price & valuation
As of 2026-08-05, A-share ~¥9.74. Multiples track aluminum expectations; trailing PE low-teens.
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| P/E（静态） | 约 13x | 市值约 1671 亿 / 归母 126.74 亿 |
| P/B | 约 1.5–2.0x | 铝冶炼周期股偏低位倍数 |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 7%–8% | 1/PE |
| 现价读法 | A 股约 9.74 元（2026-08-05） | 定价铝价与电价预期 |
~3y valuation / return series (illustrative public-market; div yield and trailing ann. return approximate):
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Revenue and GM track Al and power gradually; mild seasonality.
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Healthy / steady-state — under capacity caps prioritize OCF and dividends; debt per consolidated statements.
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 健康偏稳态 | 产能天花板下现金流优先于高增 |
| 经营现金流 | N/A（本包未单列） | 以年报现金流量表为准；稳态铝企通常 OCF 较好 |
| 有息债 vs 现金 | 示意：历史去杠杆后改善 | 以合并报表净负债为准 |
| 流动性 | 示意：正常 | — |
| 审计意见 | 无保留（常规预期） | 以年报为准 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue 2025 | ¥241.125B | +1.69% | Steady |
| Parent NI 2025 | ¥12.674B | +2.25% | Modest growth |
| Pretax profit | ~¥25.84B | — | Al price/cost |
| Chain | Alumina–primary Al | — | Integrated |
| Key drivers | Al / power price | — | Earnings beta |
Competition
Peers: private primary-Al cost-curve rivals (e.g. Weiqiao system — no dedicated pack here); on-site nonferrous contrasts Zijin, JXCC, CMOC.
Strengths: integration and SOE resource access; stickier share under capacity caps. Weaknesses: limited volume upside; power spikes compress NI faster than low-cost private peers.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position / share | GM / margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 中国铝业 601600 (self) | 国内铝业龙头 | ~14–15% | 氧化铝—电解铝一体化；产能天花板下成本曲线 | 产量弹性有限；电价敏感 |
| 紫金矿业 601899 | 有色矿端对照 | 矿端更高 | 多金属全球化 | 非铝主业 |
| 江西铜业 600362 | 有色冶炼对照（铜） | 冶炼偏低 | 铜冶炼规模 | 铝暴露弱 |
| 洛阳钼业 603993 | 有色矿端对照 | 矿端更高 | 铜钴弹性 | 非铝产业链 |
Management
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 / Chair | 董建雄 | 公开披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动（以最新年报为准） |
| 总裁 / President | 朱润洲 | 公开披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动 |
| 财务总监 / CFO | 葛晓磊 | 公开披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动（以最新年报为准） |
24m changes: No material disclosed core-officer turnover (per latest annual).
Stability: Central-SOE governance stable; Al and power prices drive NI, not succession.
Outlook
Commodity demand: Primary Al tied to construction, transport, new-energy uses; supply capped — price torque from power costs and inventories.
Power cost and Al mid-cycle set profits; capacity swaps and cost curve position drive medium-term competitiveness.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Al up; power controlled | NI upgrades |
| Base | Al range-bound; steady costs | Cyclical / yield hold |
| Bear | Al down + power up | Margin squeeze |
Risks
Risks (with severity)
| Risk | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 铝价下跌 | 高 | 利润弹性核心 |
| 电价 / 能耗双控 | 高 | 电力成本直接压缩利润 |
| 铝土矿 / 氧化铝供应 | 中高 | 供应链回扣 |
| 产能天花板 | 中 | 产量难高增，份额靠置换 |
| 地产 / 出口需求 | 中 | 下游建筑交通包装 |
| 环保限产 | 中 | — |
Tracking
Next interim / annual check:
- Alumina/primary Al volumes & utilization
- Power cost vs Al spread
- OCF and dividends
- Capacity swap / green power
- External alumina share
Confirm: Al price stable, power costs contained, OCF supports dividends.
Falsify: Al crash plus rising power costs / production curbs.
References
- Chalco A-share disclosures — https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/stock?stockCode=601600&orgId=gssh0601600
- cninfo — https://www.cninfo.com.cn/
- HKEX (2600.HK) — https://www.hkexnews.hk/
- Nonferrous deep-dive · Zijin · JXCC
Not investment advice. Valuation series are illustrative public-market estimates.
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