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FCX · US

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) · Leading listed copper miner

FCX Q2'26 copper price + Grasberg volume; ~$54 / ~$78B mkt. Sector nonferrous, copper S/D.

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Market snapshot

Price (~8/22)
USD 54.2
Market cap (approx)
USD 78.0B
FY2025 NI
USD 5.2B
TTM revenue
USD 26.0B
As of 2026-09-25

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is one of the world's largest listed copper producers, anchored by Grasberg (Indonesia Cu/Au) and Americas copper-moly mines (Morenci, Cerro Verde, etc.). FY2025 parent NI $5.2B (), TTM revenue ~$26B; Q2'26 with LME copper ~$4.35/lb avg (+18% YoY) and Grasberg volume ramp, revenue ~$7.5B and NI $1.9B (). As of 2026-08-22 ~$54.20 / mkt ~$78B.

Copper AI datacenter / grid / energy transition narrative supports medium-term demand; FCX offers pure copper beta plus Grasberg volume. Sector: nonferrous deep-dive, copper S&D outlook. Tension: copper partly prices optimism; Indonesia policy and Grasberg execution remain discount drivers.

Business

Model: Upstream copper (plus by-product gold, moly) mining — earnings ≈ volumes × LME copper − cash costs; highly cyclical.

Flagships:

  1. Grasberg (Indonesia) — Tier-1 Cu/Au mine; underground block cave ramp
  2. Americas copper — Morenci, Cerro Verde, El Abra, etc.
  3. Moly — By-product concentrate; partial hedge

Competitiveness: Grasberg on favorable cost curve; highest pure copper exposure among mega-caps vs BHP/RIO.

Strategy (12–24m): Grasberg underground steady-state; Indonesia smelter/export compliance; Americas sustaining production; high-FCF cycle delever + returns.

Entity boundary: NYSE FCX; mining only (concentrate sales, limited downstream).

Strategy

Strategy
PillarContent
主业定位全球最大上市铜生产商之一；Grasberg + 美洲铜金钼
产量指引2026 铜销量指引约 42 亿磅（~）；Grasberg 地下稳态爬坡
印尼Grasberg Block Cave + 国内冶炼/出口政策跟踪
美洲Arizona Morenci / Bagdad；智利 El Abra 等
资本回报FCF 优先还债 + 分红/回购；铜价高周期增厚回报
As of 2026-09-25

Value chain

Position: upstream concentrate/cathode; earns resource + operating leverage.

Side Counterparties Dependence
Upstream Fuel, power, acid, explosives, equipment Energy & inflation
Downstream Global smelters, traders LME pricing; TC/RC

Customer structure

Customer structure
ItemValueNote
客户类型全球冶炼厂、贸易商、工业用户铜精矿/阴极/钼
客户集中度N/A（未具名 Top 占比）10-K 未单独披露
地域 / 结算全球 LME/COMEX 定价；长协+现货—
As of 2026-09-25

Customer concentration: Top customers not disclosed — N/A; fragmented global smelter/trade channels.

Supply-chain risks: (1) Indonesia export/smelting policy; (2) Grasberg underground geology/safety/community; (3) energy/reagent inflation — echoed in Risks.

Corporate events

Corporate events

Corporate events
DatePhaseEventMeaning
2024-2025运营Grasberg 地下矿持续爬坡铜金产量中枢上移
2025政策印尼出口/冶炼政策阶段性调整影响精矿出口与本地加工
2026-07业绩发布 Q2'26 业绩（约）铜价高位 + 量增驱动利润
2026资本维持分红 + 适度回购周期高盈利期股东回报
As of 2026-09-25

Price & valuation

~2026-08-22 ~$54.20 / ~$78B mkt cap. TTM P/E ~15x; EV/EBITDA ~8x. Market weighs AI/grid copper demand, Grasberg ramp, Indonesia discount.

Valuation snapshot

Valuation snapshot
MetricValueNote
P/E（TTM 约）约 15x市值 ~780 亿 / TTM 净利 ~52 亿
P/B约 3.0x周期高点净资产抬升
EV/EBITDA（约）约 8x矿端周期股常用口径
现价读法~$54.20（2026-08-22）定价铜 AI/电网需求 vs 印尼/成本风险
As of 2026-09-25

~3-year valuation/return series (public market; some estimates ~):

Valuation & return · ~3Y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Public market quarter-ends: TTM PE/PB, rolling yield, trailing 12M return (~) · As of 2026-09-25

Share price · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Quarterly close reconstruction (illustrative, split-adjusted approx.) · As of 2026-09-25

Financial trend (~24m)

Higher copper and volumes lift revenue and net margin from ~18% (2024) to ~25% (Q2'26 ~). Seasonality from Indonesia rains/maintenance.

Revenue · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Company filings; some quarters estimated (~) · As of 2026-09-25

Net margin · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Company filings; some estimated (~) · As of 2026-09-25

Financial health (§A.7)

Healthy — strong OCF (TTM ~$6.8B), net debt down from 2022 peak; ample liquidity. Audit: unqualified expected per latest 10-K.

Financial health

Financial health
ItemValueNote
财务健康总评健康高铜价周期 OCF 强劲；净债持续下降
经营现金流（TTM 约）~$68 亿与净利润基本匹配（~）
有息债 vs 现金净债 ~$15 亿（约）较 2022 高位显著去杠杆
流动性充裕 revolving + 经营现金流
审计意见无保留（常规预期）以最新 10-K 为准
As of 2026-09-25

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Reconstructed from public filings (illustrative; attributable NI) · As of 2026-09-25

Operations

Price (LME +18% YoY) and volume (Grasberg) both drive the quarter.

Key ops / financials

Key ops / financials
ItemValueYoYNote
Q2'26 营收（约）$75 亿+15%铜价 + 量
Q2'26 归母（约）$19 亿+20%量价共振
铜销量（2026 指引约）42 亿磅+3%Grasberg 贡献
黄金（副产）Grasberg 为主—铜金伴生
LME 铜（Q2 均价约）$4.35/lb+18%AI/电网叙事
As of 2026-09-25

Competition

Peers: SCCO, BHP, RIO.

Strengths: purest copper leverage; Grasberg cost position.
Weaknesses: Indonesia concentration; high copper beta.

Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer comparison

Peer comparison
namesharegmstrengthweakness
FCX (self)全球最大上市铜企之一净利率 ~25%Grasberg 低成本 + 美洲资产组合印尼集中；铜 beta 高
SCCO秘鲁铜矿端高南美低成本铜；家族治理稳定品种单一；增长项目有限
BHP多元化矿企综合铁/铜/ potash 分散；资本纪律铜占比低于 FCX
RIO铁+铜+铝综合铁矿石现金流；铜项目 pipeline铜利润贡献次于 FCX
As of 2026-09-25

Management

Management (24m)

Management (24m)
RoleNameSince24m change
Executive ChairmanRichard Adkerson2003无变动
President & CEOKathleen Quirk2021无变动
CFOJoshua Macey20242024 接任 CFO（前任退休）
As of 2026-09-25

24m changes: CFO transition 2024 (Macey); Quirk/Adkerson stable.

Stability: Smooth — commodity/Indonesia risks dominate, not personnel.

Outlook

Copper demand from AI power, grid, EV; watch China property and global PMI.

H2'26: Grasberg Cu/Au vs guide, Indonesia policy, copper >$4/lb sustainability, FCF/returns.

Scenarios

Scenario Conditions Implication
Bull Cu >$4.50/lb; Grasberg beats; Indonesia stable Earnings upgrade + re-rating
Base Cu $4.0–4.5/lb; guide met Hold cyclical exposure
Bear Cu <$3.50/lb or Grasberg disruption Earnings hit + high beta selloff

Risks

Risks (rated)

Risks (rated)
RiskLevelNote
铜价回落高利润高度敏感 LME 铜
印尼政策 / Grasberg 运营高出口、冶炼、社区与地质
成本通胀 / 品位中能源、试剂、人力
地缘与 ESG中矿山许可、尾矿监管
汇率（IDR/CLP）中本地成本折算
项目执行 / 事故中地下矿安全与爬坡
As of 2026-09-25

Tracking

Next 10-Q / earnings call — 3–5 checks:

  1. Quarterly copper sales vs ~4.2B lb 2026 guide
  2. Grasberg Cu/Au output and unit costs
  3. Indonesia export/smelting policy updates
  4. LME copper vs EBITDA/FCF sensitivity
  5. Net debt and buyback/dividend vs CapEx

Confirm: guide met, stable Indonesia, OCF matches earnings, deleveraging.
Falsify: Grasberg outage, copper collapse, export restrictions, cost blowout.

References

  1. Freeport-McMoRan IR — https://investors.fcx.com/
  2. SEC EDGAR FCX filings — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000831259
  3. LME Copper — https://www.lme.com/en/Market-Data/Reports-and-data/Prices-and-volumes
  4. In-site: nonferrous deep-dive, copper S&D 2026

Not investment advice. (~) = estimate.

Disclaimer: For research information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.

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