0857.HK, 601857.SH · A-shares · Hong Kong
0857.HK / 601857.SH PetroChina: integrated oil & gas, dividend resilience
PetroChina FY2025 revenue ¥2.8645T (−2.5%), parent NI ¥157.318B (−4.5%); OCF ¥412.5B, FCF ¥120.2B. 2026Q1 revenue ¥736.4B (−2.2%), parent NI ¥48.3B (+1.9%). A-share ~¥10.92 / mkt ~¥2.00T; TTM PE ~12.6x, yield ~4.3%. See CNOOC, Sinopec, Shenhua.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/petrochina-0857-research#thesis
Latest print snapshot
- 2026Q1 revenue
- CNY 736.4B
- 2026Q1 parent NI
- CNY 48.3B
- FY2025 parent NI
- CNY 157.3B
- A-share (~22 Jul)
- CNY 10.92
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
PetroChina (0857.HK / 601857.SH) is China’s largest integrated oil & gas company: upstream and gas marketing drive profit, refining/marketing drive scale. IFRS FY2025: revenue ¥2.8645T (−2.5%), parent NI ¥157.318B (−4.5%), OCF ¥412.510B (+1.5%), FCF ¥120.189B (+15.2%); realized crude $64.11/bbl (−14.2%), unit lifting cost ~$12.04/boe. 2026Q1: revenue ¥736.383B (−2.2%), parent NI ¥48.333B (+1.9%), production 470.2 mmboe (+0.7%). As of ~2026-07-22, A-share ~¥10.92 (mkt cap ~¥2.00T on full share count), H-share ~HK$9.6; A-share TTM PE ~12.6x, div yield ~4.3%. As of this pack (2026-08-18), H1 2026 is not yet out (market window ~late August).
Read-through: lower oil prices cut sales and upstream EBIT, but gas marketing/refining offsets + low leverage + dividends keep earnings historically high. The market prices an oil-price midpoint and payout continuity, not a growth multiple. See CNOOC, Sinopec, Shenhua.
Business
Model: E&P → refining/chemicals → products marketing → natural-gas sales. Profit is mostly resource rent and gas spread; scale is refining and trading.
Flagships:
- Oil, gas & new energy — FY2025 operating profit ¥136.065B (~60% of group OP); volume × oil price.
- Natural-gas sales — OP ¥60.802B (+12.6%); domestic volume and import cost are the swing.
- Refining/chemicals/new materials + marketing — refining/chem OP ¥24.247B (+13.4%), marketing ¥17.547B (+6.4%); diesel demand pressured by EVs; jet/chem/new materials and “oil-gas-H2-power-nonfuel” are offsets.
Competitiveness (≥2 testable): (1) domestic production and retail/pipeline reach (FY2025 1,841.9 mmboe; products share ~32.4%); (2) lifting cost ~$12/boe and low gearing (11.2%), so FCF stays >¥100B and payout ≥50% even in a down-price year.
Strategy (12–24m): 2026 plan 1,853.4 mmboe and crude throughput 1,377.1 mmbbl; “less fuel, more chemicals/specialties”; wind/solar and CCUS; integrated energy stations. Near-term earnings still oil price and gas spread; new energy is still small (FY2025 wind+solar 7.93 TWh).
Strategy
| Pillar / phase | Detail |
|---|---|
| 0–12m：产量与油价 | KPI：油气当量 vs 1,853.4 mmboe · 实现油价 · 操作成本 ~12 美元/桶 |
| 气销与炼油对冲 | KPI：气销经营利润 · 炼油单位毛利 · 化工是否走阔 |
| 转型与股东回报 | KPI：风光发电量 · 中期/末期股息 · 派息比例 ≥50%？ |
Entity / boundary: listco is PetroChina Company Limited (A+H); parent is CNPC — do not conflate. No liquidation/resume events in 24m; same-control combinations (Daqing power acquisition; storage-company consolidation) restate comparatives—use latest filings for series.
Value chain
Integrated up/mid/downstream. Upstream: oil-price rent. Midstream: crack/processing spread. Downstream: retail and seasonal gas spreads.
| Direction | Counterparties | Power / dependence |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | Mineral rights / oilfield services / pipeline gas & LNG | Resource-host and import prices; HSE |
| Downstream | Retail/wholesale fuels, city gas, industry & gas power, traders | Domestic demand, EV vs diesel, winter peak |
Customers
| Customer | Concentration/role | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 成品油零售/批发 | 分散；国内份额约 32.4% | 汽煤柴；EV 压柴油 |
| 天然气（城燃/工业/气电） | 中等分散 | 2025 国内销售 2,475 亿方 |
| 原油/化工/贸易 | 分散 + 贸易波动 | 海外业务约占营收 33.9% |
| 前五大客户合计 | 约 9% | 年报披露、未具名 |
Concentration: top-five customers ~9% of sales (disclosed, unnamed). Mix is domestic-led; overseas (incl. trading) ~33.9% of revenue.
Supply risks (≥2): (1) oil price / OPEC+ / geopolitics; (2) import pipeline gas & LNG cost and winter supply — echoed in Risks.
Corporate events
Material items over ~24–36m:
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 人事 | 黄永章辞任总裁；任立新接任 | 央企内部轮岗，主席未变 |
| 2026-03 | 财报/分红 | 2025：营收 −2.5%、归母 −4.5%；末期股息 0.25 元 | 油价下行、FCF 与派息仍高 |
| 2026-04 | 财报 | 2026Q1：营收 −2.2%、归母 +1.9% | 气销/炼油对冲上游 |
| 2024–2025 | 并表 | 同一控制合并（电能/储气库）追溯比较期 | 读财务序列用最新口径 |
Valuation
Use A-share CNY (full share count × A price). H-shares (0857.HK) usually trade at a discount with a higher yield. ~2026-07-22 A ¥10.92, mkt ~¥2.00T; TTM PE ~12.6x, PB ~1.27x, trailing yield ~4.3% (FY2025 DPS ¥0.47 = interim 0.22 + final 0.25). The market is pricing integrated cash flow and payout at a mid/high oil midpoint, with a discount for oil/refining drawdowns.
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 市值（A 价×总股本，约） | 约 2.00 万亿人民币 | A 股约 10.92 元（约 2026-07-22）；H 约 9.6 港元 |
| TTM P/E（A 股示意） | 约 12.6x | FY2025 EPS 0.86 元；H 股 TTM PE 更低（约 9–10x） |
| P/B（A 股示意） | 约 1.23–1.27x | 2025 末归母权益 1.586 万亿 |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 8% | 1 / TTM PE |
| 股息率（A 股） | 约 4.3% | 2025 DPS 0.47 元（中期 0.22+末期 0.25）；H 股收益率通常更高 |
| 分红比例 | 约 54.7% | 政策底 30%；近三年约 50–55% |
~3y PE / PB / dividend yield / trailing 12m return (illustrative A-share):
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Eight-quarter revenue follows oil price and volumes. Q1 often rebounds QoQ (heating/Spring Festival); Q4 net margin is seasonally weaker. Gross margin is complete only at annual frequency (FY2025 main-business GM ~13.6%); the chart uses parent net margin (quarterly).
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Parent net margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health
Verdict: solid-to-strong — thick OCF/FCF, very low net debt; oil-price beta remains. Auditor: KPMG Huazhen / KPMG, unqualified.
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏强 | 厚 OCF/FCF、净负债很低；油价 beta 仍在 |
| 经营现金流（2025） | 4,125.10 亿 | +1.5%；覆盖 CapEx 2,690.89 亿 |
| 自由现金流（2025） | 1,201.89 亿 | +15.2%；连续千亿以上 |
| 有息债 vs 现金（2025 末） | 债 2,275.63 亿 / 现金 2,061.62 亿 | 净负债 214.01 亿（上年 643.78 亿） |
| 流动性 | 流动比 1.10；速动 0.83 | 资本负债率 11.2%（上年 12.2%） |
| ROE / 资产负债率 | ROE 约 9.9%；资产负债率 36.4% | IFRS；CAS 加权 ROE 约 10.1% |
| 审计 / 持续经营 | 无保留意见 | 毕马威华振 / 毕马威；无持续经营强调事项 |
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
FY2025: volume up, price down. Crude 948.0 mmbbl (+0.7%), marketable gas 5,363.2 bcf (+4.5%); gasoline/kerosene/diesel sales 160.81 mt (+1.1%); gas sales 314.713 bcm (+7.0%). Refining OP ¥21.704B (+19.1%) offset upstream; chemicals ¥2.543B (−19.4%). 2026Q1: upstream OP fell; gas marketing ¥18.867B (+39.7%) and refining/chem ¥8.283B lifted group profit, parent NI turned positive YoY.
FY2025 segment operating profit
| Segment | OP / YoY | Watchpoint |
|---|---|---|
| 油气和新能源 | 1,360.65 亿 / −14.8% | 实现油价 64.11 美元/桶；操作成本 12.04 美元/桶 |
| 天然气销售 | 608.02 亿 / +12.6% | 2026Q1 经营利润 188.67 亿（+39.7%） |
| 炼油化工和新材料 | 242.47 亿 / +13.4% | 炼油 217.04 亿；化工 25.43 亿 |
| 销售 | 175.47 亿 / +6.4% | 国内成品油份额约 32.4% |
Competition
Peers: CNOOC (low-cost upstream), Sinopec (refining-led), China Shenhua (energy high-dividend analog).
Strengths: integrated profit pools (gas + refining hedge oil); production and retail scale; low leverage and payout discipline.
Weaknesses: all-in barrel cost and volume growth usually trail CNOOC; refining/marketing exposed to fuel-demand mix; overseas projects and import gas add geopolitics vs domestic coal-power.
Peer comparison
| Company | Position | Margin / cost | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 中国石油 0857 / 601857 (self) | 一体化油气龙头 | 主营毛利率约 13.6%；操作成本 ~$12/桶 | 气销+炼油对冲；低杠杆高分红 | 产量增速与全成本通常不及海油 |
| 中国海油 0883 / 600938 | 海上上游 | 桶油主要成本约 $27.9（全口径） | 低成本产量增长 | 缺炼化/零售对冲；油价 beta 更纯 |
| 中国石化 600028 / 0386 | 炼化一体 | 炼化利润波动大 | 下游网络与化工规模 | 2025 归母回撤更深；上游储量弱于中石油 |
| 中国神华 601088 / 1088 | 能源高股息对照 | 煤电运一体 | 分红与现金流防御 | 非油气；煤价与转型压力 |
Management
Chair Dai Houliang (also CNPC chair); President Ren Lixin (replaced Huang Yongzhang in Sep 2025); CFO Wang Hua. Stable SOE rotation; continuity is production guidance and dividend policy more than personality.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 | 戴厚良 (Dai Houliang) | 2023-06 | 期间无重大披露变动（兼集团董事长） |
| 总裁 | 任立新 (Ren Lixin) | 2025-09 | 接替黄永章（2025-09 辞任） |
| 财务总监 / 董秘 | 王华 (Wang Hua) | 在任（年报） | 公开披露未见重大更替 |
Outlook
Near term: H1 2026 print (oil price, gas spread, refining unit margin) and interim DPS. Medium term: 2026 production/throughput delivery, import-gas cost, whether new-energy kWh moves from high growth/low base into profit. Demand: crude vs global stocks/OPEC+; domestic gas still growing; diesel split by EVs/LNG trucks.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Oil recovers; gas spread widens; payout holds/rises | Earnings and dividend up |
| Base | Oil range-bound; gas/refining offset upstream | Integrated high-dividend hold |
| Bear | Deep oil drop + sticky import-gas cost; products demand worse than feared | Earnings and multiple compress |
Risks
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| 国际油价与实现价格下跌 | 高 | 上游仍是利润主力 |
| 进口气成本刚性 / 保供 | 中高 | 气销利润对采购成本敏感 |
| 成品油需求结构变化 | 中 | EV/LNG 重卡分流柴油 |
| 安全环保与海外作业 | 中 | HSE 与资源国政策 |
| 特别收益金 / 能源转型政策 | 中 | 油价上行时税费弹性 |
| Risk | Level |
|---|---|
| Oil price / realized crude | High |
| Import-gas cost / winter supply | Med-high |
| Products demand mix (EV/substitution) | Medium |
| HSE and overseas operations | Medium |
| Policy / special oil levy / energy transition | Medium |
Tracking
- Next interim: revenue/parent NI, realized crude, gas-marketing OP
- Production vs 2026 plan 1,853.4 mmboe; lifting cost near ~$12/boe
- Refining unit margin and chemicals
- Interim DPS and full-year payout (floor 30%; last 3y ~50–55%)
- Net debt, OCF, wind/solar output
Confirm: oil does not collapse, gas/refining hedge works, payout holds. Falsify: deep oil drop with hedge failure, or a material payout cut.
References
- PetroChina 2025 Annual Report — https://www.petrochina.com.cn/petrochina/rdxx/202603/77efc25cfdc14bad83525f05cf092454/files/40b5ebc3882d441397f5203d64652a51.pdf
- PetroChina 2026 Q1 report — https://www.petrochina.com.cn/petrochina/rdxx/202604/47aa45c6dead441ea8014bf8f9e5dde1/files/1c4bd94b4b474d6e84308190776b06c2.pdf
- FY2025 results announcement (HKEX) — https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0423/2026042301798_c.pdf
- PetroChina IR / press (FY2025, 2026Q1) — https://www.petrochina.com.cn/ptr/
- CNINFO (601857) — https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/stock?stockCode=601857&orgId=gssh0601857
- See CNOOC · Sinopec · Shenhua
Not investment advice. Figures follow latest IFRS/CAS filings; valuation/return series are illustrative market reads. Dual-listed A/H; amounts in CNY unless noted.
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