MCD · US
MCD.US: Q2'26 $7.1B — comps slow & new US president
McDonald's Q2 revenue $7.10B (+4%), global comps +1.3%, US +0.8% (traffic still negative). EPS $3.32 / adj $3.38. Skye Anderson named US president. Defensive cash cow; near-term is execution.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/mcd-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price (approx.)
- USD 267
- Mkt cap (approx.)
- USD 190.0B
- Revenue (approx.)
- USD 28.4B
- Global comps (Q)
- 0.01
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
McDonald's Q2 revenue $7.10B (+4%), global comps +1.3%, US +0.8% (traffic still negative, check up). EPS $3.32 / adj $3.38; Systemwide $37B. Skye Anderson named US president. Franchise cash cow; near-term is US traffic and value.
Business
Model: brand + real estate + franchise rent/royalty. Flagships: US value + loyalty; IOM; IDL. Edge: scale, supply chain, brand. Strategy: fix US traffic; unit growth. Entity: Corporation ≠ franchisee P&L.
Value chain
Downstream QSR brand. Upstream: beef/packaging/logistics; downstream: franchisees and guests. Top-5 suppliers not named. Risks: ag inflation, franchisee cash, labor.
Valuation
Price context ~$267. Defensive multiple, sensitive to comps. Dividend yield ~2.6%.
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TTM PE | N/A | 未接入具名行情源;TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数 |
| PB | N/A | 待最新净资产与市值核验 |
| 股息率 | N/A | 待分红公告 / IR |
| 现价语境 | 约 267 | MCD · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准 |
~3y PE / PB / dividend yield / trailing 1Y ann. return. Points without a named market source are null:
Valuation & return · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Last ~8Q revenue and margins with YoY / QoQ. Missing quarters stay null:
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Structurally leveraged franchise model; OCF vs dividend is the test. See latest 10-Q net debt.
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏扩张 | 以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准 |
| 经营现金流 | 见最新 10-Q | AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲 |
| 净负债 / 现金 | 投资级或净现金 | 详见 table 与 IR |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | Current ratio / cash & equivalents |
| 审计意见 | 无保留(常规预期) | 以最新 10-K 为准 |
Operations
IOM comps +1.5%, IDL +1.9%. ~220M 90-day loyalty users. US comps back on plan maybe 2027.
Key financial points
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 营收 | $7.10B | +4% | 略低于部分预期 |
| 全球同店 | +1.3% | 放缓 | 美国 +0.8% |
| 净利 | $2.36B | +5% | EPS $3.32 |
| Systemwide | $37B | +5% | 季度 |
| 忠诚用户 | ~2.2亿 | +13% | 90 日活 |
| 美国总裁 | Skye Anderson | 新任命 | 执行变量 |
Competition
Peer strengths/weaknesses; share charts only when a named source exists.
Peer map
| Company | Share/role | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's (self) | QSR leader | High franchise | Brand+franchise | Traffic cycles |
| Starbucks | Coffee QSR | Mid | Loyalty | China/labor |
| Yum! Brands | Multi-brand | High | Franchise | Less scale than MCD |
Management
Management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Chris Kempczinski | 2019 | No change |
| CFO | Ian Borden | 2023 | No material change |
| Chair | Board Chair | — | See proxy |
Stability: Global CEO stable; new US president is a material 24m operating variable.
Outlook
Track US traffic, value menu, new-unit cannibalization, dividend.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 需求/指引不及预期 | 高 | 客流持续负、加盟商压力、食品安全、汇率、估值。 |
| 竞争加剧 | 中 | 同业扩产或降价挤压份额与毛利 |
| 供应链约束 | 中 | 关键零部件或产能瓶颈 |
| 估值与流动性 | 中 | 主题退潮或解禁带来回撤 |
| 政策与合规 | 低 | 出口管制、监管或审计关注 |
Tracking list
Verify on next earnings:
- US comps and traffic inflection (company points to 2027)
- Global comps 1.3% re-acceleration and value-menu competitiveness
- Execution after Skye Anderson as US president
- Systemwide sales / ~220M loyalty users
- Franchisee cash flow vs new-unit cannibalization
References
- McDonald's Q2 2026 8-K — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000063908
- McDonald's IR — https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/investors.html
- QSR comps / franchisee industry sources
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.
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