Investor Research

LLY · US

LLY.US: Q2'26 $23.0B (+48%) — tirzepatide ramp & FY guide raise

Eli Lilly Q2 2026 revenue $23.0B (+48%), Mounjaro $9.94B, Zepbound $4.93B; GAAP EPS $7.94; FY26 revenue guide $85–87B. Volume +60%, realized price −13%. Price context ~$820.

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Snapshot

Price (approx.)
USD 820
Mkt cap (approx.)
USD 750.0B
Revenue (approx.)
USD 91.9B
Mounjaro (Q)
USD 9.9B
As of 2026-09-25

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Eli Lilly Q2 2026 revenue $23.0B (+48%), Mounjaro $9.94B (+91%), Zepbound $4.93B (+46%); GAAP EPS $7.94, GM 85.8%. Volume +60%, realized price −13%. FY26 revenue guide $85–87B. Quality growth asset; constraints are capacity, payers, and single-molecule dependence.

Business

Model: innovator pharma (R&D → register → manufacture → global detail). Flagships: 1) tirzepatide dual brand (Mounjaro/Zepbound, ~$14.9B / 65% of Q2); 2) immunology/oncology/neuro Key Products (+121%); 3) oral obesity / retatrutide pipeline. Edge: clinical differentiation + device/fill-finish + physician mindshare. Strategy: price-for-volume (cash-pay/NRDL), label expansion, orals. Entity: Eli Lilly and Company.

Value chain

Downstream innovator commercialization. Upstream: API/device/fill-finish and CDMOs; downstream: PBMs/payers, hospitals, retail and cash-pay. Concentration: US PBM/reimbursement leverage. Supply risks: (1) device/fill-finish; (2) cold chain / channel inventory.

Valuation

Price context ~$820 / mkt ~$750B (2026-08-30 pack). Market prices the FY26 $85–87B path; multiple still rich vs big pharma; buffer is estimate revisions and buybacks.

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
MetricValueNote
TTM PEN/A未接入具名行情源；TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数
PBN/A待最新净资产与市值核验
股息率N/A待分红公告 / IR
现价语境约 820LLY · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准
As of 2026-09-25

~3y PE / PB / dividend yield / trailing 1Y ann. return. Points without a named market source are null:

Valuation & return · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

PE/PB/yield/return points are null until a named market source is wired; no linear fill. · As of 2026-09-25

Share price · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Public quarterly closes (split-adjusted); do not invent gaps · As of 2026-09-25

Financial trend (~24 months)

Last ~8Q revenue and margins with YoY / QoQ. Missing quarters stay null:

Revenue · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Company IR / 10-Q quarterly revenue; null when missing · As of 2026-09-25

Gross margin · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Company IR gross margin; null when missing — no interpolation · As of 2026-09-25

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Attributable NI from filings; null when missing — no interpolation · As of 2026-09-25

Financial health (§A.7)

Q2 NI $7.1B; GM 85.8%. OCF typically covers expansion CapEx; defer to latest 10-Q OCF / debt. Audit expected unqualified.

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
ItemValueNote
财务健康总评稳健偏扩张高增药企：利润与现金质量好，异常项在收购 IPR&D
经营现金流见 Q2 10-Q与 $7.1B 净利对照；关注库存与应收
有息债 vs 现金投资级扩产 CapEx 期需跟踪净债
流动性充裕大药常规营运资本
审计意见无保留（常规预期）以最新 10-K 为准
As of 2026-09-25

Operations

Q2: Key Products $15.7B; US Mounjaro $4.8B, ex-US $5.2B (+172%, NRDL). $2.8B acquired IPR&D weighed on GAAP conversion. Track scripts, weeks-on-hand, device deliveries.

Key financial points

Key financial points
ItemValueYoYNote
Q2 营收$23.0B+48%量 +60% / 价 −13%
Mounjaro$9.94B+91%中美双引擎
Zepbound$4.93B+46%美国现金价策略
毛利率85.8%+1.5ppt规模效应
GAAP EPS$7.94+26%含收购费用
FY26 指引$85–87B上修两端各 +$3B
As of 2026-09-25

Competition

Peer strengths/weaknesses; share charts only when a named source exists.

Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Named industry/company sources only; else omit or null · As of 2026-09-25

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Named sources only; list in references · As of 2026-09-25

Peer map

Peer map
CompanyShare/roleMarginStrengthWeakness
Eli Lilly (self)Obesity leader~80%+Tirzepatide + pipelineValuation / supply
Novo NordiskSemaglutide peerHighBrand scaleShare fight
AmgenPipelineHighMariTide narrativeLater
As of 2026-09-25

Management

Management (24m)

Management (24m)
RoleNameSince24m change
CEODavid Ricks2017-01No change
CFOLucas Montarce2025Appointed (transition)
ChairDavid Ricks2017No change
As of 2026-09-25

Stability: David Ricks long-tenured CEO/Chair; CFO Lucas Montarce is a 24m transition — continuity still high.

Outlook

Near term: Q3 volume/price mix, FY guide, oral/CVOT, capacity.

Scenarios

Scenario Condition Implication
Bull Demand/execution beats Upside
Base Trend continues Hold/watch
Bear Cycle/competition worsens Drawdown/reassess

Risks

Risk Severity Note
替尔泊肽单分子依赖 高 Q2 两品牌约占收 65%；竞品/支付冲击弹性大
实现价格继续下行 高 现金价与 NRDL 以价换量，可能侵蚀利润率
装置/灌装产能 中 供给是放量硬约束
估值与主题退潮 中 上修放缓即可双杀
管线与收购费用 低 IPR&D 与后期临床失败

Tracking list

Verify on next earnings:

  1. FY26 $85–87B revenue guide vs Q3 tirzepatide volume/price mix
  2. Mounjaro China NRDL volume vs −13% realized price
  3. Zepbound cash-pay price strategy vs US scripts/inventory
  4. Oral / retatrutide pipeline and device capacity
  5. Gross margin ~85% and OCF vs net income

References

  1. Eli Lilly Q2 2026 results — https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-raises-full
  2. SEC EDGAR LLY — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000059478
  3. Peers — Novo incretin franchise; on-site CN biopharma notes

Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.

Disclaimer: For research information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.

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