688825.SH · A-shares
688825.SH CXMT: LPDDR6 MP + H1'26 beat
CXMT (688825.SH) H1'26 revenue ¥150.310B (+873.64%), parent NI ¥77.605B, OCF ¥131.156B, main GM ~84.8%—well above prior guide. On 2026-08-29 announced **LPDDR6 mass production** (12,800 Mbps / up to 16GB); Xiaomi 18 Fold first attach, Xuanjie O3 first SoC. A-share ~¥58.6 / mkt ~¥3.98T. Debate: cycle delivery vs valuation stretch. Cf. Micron MU.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/cxmt-688825-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- A-share (~8/28)
- CNY 58.6
- Market cap (approx)
- CNY 3980.0B
- H1'26 revenue
- CNY 150.3B
- H1'26 parent NI
- CNY 77.6B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
CXMT (ChangXin Memory listco, 688825.SH) is China's leading integrated DRAM designer-manufacturer; STAR IPO on 2026-07-27. 2025 revenue ¥61.799B, consolidated NI ¥7.144B, parent NI ¥1.875B (first annual profit).
H1'26 delivered: revenue ¥150.310B (+873.64%), parent NI ¥77.605B (vs −¥2.332B prior-year; non-GAAP parent NI ¥78.793B), OCF ¥131.156B; main-business gross margin ~84.8%. Results beat the prior H1 guide (rev ¥110–120B / parent NI ¥50–57B).
Product milestone: on 2026-08-29 CXMT announced LPDDR6 mass production (H1 report still said sampling / accelerating ramp)—peak 12,800 Mbps, up to 16GB per chip; Xiaomi 18 Fold first attach, Xuanjie O3 first supporting SoC. Peer: Micron MU.
A-share ~¥58.6 / mkt ~¥3.98T (2026-08-28)—cycle delivery meets stretched valuation.
Business
Model: DRAM IDM selling wafers/chips/modules into consumer, server, PC, and auto. Earnings tied to DRAM prices and utilization. Company states it is China's #1 and global #4 DRAM vendor by volume and sales.
Flagships: LPDDR line (2025 LPDDR ~¥40.7B, ~66% of main revenue)—now LPDDR6 in volume; DDR5 for server/PC; automotive LPDDR4X/LPDDR5X in production.
Competitiveness: Scarce China DRAM IDM scale; 2025 turnaround + H1'26 beat; LPDDR6 first commercial attach strengthens flagship narrative.
Strategy (12–24m): Gen-4 process in volume, Gen-5 customer quals; broaden LPDDR6 beyond first phone; HBM/high-bandwidth still the gap vs Big 3. Near-term still DRAM-price led.
Value chain
Position: midstream memory IDM — upstream tools/materials; downstream OEMs/module houses (Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance, Tencent, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Transsion, Honor, OPPO, vivo, etc.).
Supply-chain risks: Advanced tool/material export controls; DRAM price and customer concentration; early LPDDR6 attach concentrated in few flagship platforms.
Price & valuation
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Valuation multiples · recent quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (H1 annualized) | ~2.6x | ¥3.98T / (¥77.605B×2); optically low at cycle peak |
| P/B | ~29.5x | vs parent equity ¥134.722B @ 2026-06-30 |
| Earnings yield | ~39% | 1 / ~2.6x; not durable if ASP fades |
| Spot read | ~¥58.6 / ¥3.98T | 2026-08-28 close context |
~1 month post-IPO, price up ~6× from issue; 2026-08-28 close ~¥58.6 / ~¥3.98T mkt. H1 annualized PE ~2.6x but PB ~29.5x—optically cheap PE is typical at a cyclical profit peak. Real debate: DRAM price durability and whether LPDDR6/share gains cushion a fade.
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Health summary | Strong cash / net cash | H1 OCF >> NI; cash covers interest-bearing debt |
| H1'26 OCF | ¥131.156B | +2985.64% YoY; collections from DRAM sales |
| Cash & cash equiv. | ~¥133.5B | Monetary funds ¥143.4B @ 2026-06-30 |
| Interest-bearing debt | ~¥120.8B | ST loans ¥11.1B + LT loans ¥109.7B |
| Audit | H1 unaudited | Per H1 report; annual audit pending |
Financial trend (~24 months)
~8Q with YoY/QoQ. Notes: 2026Q1/Q2 anchored to disclosed figures and H1 residuals (Q1 rev ¥50.8B / parent NI ¥24.762B; Q2 rev ~¥99.5B / parent NI ~¥52.8B); earlier quarters omitted/null without disclosure. H1 GM ~84.8%.
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Parent NI · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Key financials & product
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1'26 revenue | ¥150.310B | +873.64% | Beat ¥110–120B guide |
| H1'26 parent NI | ¥77.605B | turnaround | vs −¥2.332B; non-GAAP ¥78.793B |
| H1'26 OCF | ¥131.156B | +2985.64% | Cash conversion strong |
| H1'26 main GM | ~84.8% | — | COGS only +71% YoY |
| LPDDR6 | MP (2026-08-29) | — | Xiaomi 18 Fold first; 12800Mbps / 16GB |
H1 COGS only +71% YoY while revenue ~9× → margin/cash explosion. R&D spend ~¥6.859B (+87%). Company expects global DRAM tight supply to persist in H2'26.
Competition
Peers: Samsung, SK hynix, Micron. CXMT claims global #4; LPDDR6 commercial first-mover vs Big 3 still mostly on LPDDR5/5X with 2H'26 MP plans—watch specs/process (e.g. 1c) vs attach wins.
Strengths: Domestic capacity; cyclical leverage; LPDDR6 + auto product breadth.
Weaknesses: HBM/leading-edge gap; rich valuation; large NCI (H1 minority interest ~¥30B) widens parent vs consol. NI.
Peer comparison
| Company | Share / position | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 长鑫科技 688825 | 中国第一 / 全球第四（公司口径） | H1'26 主营 ~84.8% | LPDDR6 商用量产首发；周期弹性 | HBM/最先进制程落后；估值高 |
| 美光 MU | 全球 DRAM 三巨头 | 周期领先 | 先进制程与客户 | 地缘与对华限制 |
| SK 海力士 | 全球三巨头 | HBM 领先 | HBM/先进DRAM | 资本开支周期 |
| 三星电子 | 全球三巨头 | 规模最大 | 产能与垂直整合 | 存储价格周期 |
Management
Per prospectus/H1 filings; key 24m event is Jul 2026 STAR IPO. H1: no applicable director/executive/core-tech changes.
Stability call: Transition — post-IPO governance/disclosure; watch lockups and appointments.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 | 见招股书/年报 | 上市前后披露 | 科创板 IPO（2026-07）；核心团队以招股披露为准 |
| 总经理/CEO | 见招股书 | 披露任职 | 上市窗口期，关注后续高管公告 |
| 财务负责人 | 见招股书 | 披露任职 | 期间以招股及上市后公告为准 |
| 技术负责人 | 见招股书 | 披露任职 | 制程路线与产能相关 |
Outlook
Near term: DRAM spot/contract prices, utilization, LPDDR6 ramp and more OEM/SoC wins, Gen-5 quals, key-customer share. FY26 earnings highly price-dependent; LPDDR6 is a generation proof-point, secondary to ASP near term.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Firm DRAM; LPDDR6 scales; share gains | Rich multiple partly earned |
| Base | High prices chop; tough H1 comps; LPDDR6 flagship-limited | Volatile hold / trade |
| Bear | Sharp memory fade; lockup/sentiment unwind; LPDDR6 miss | NI + multiple crush |
Risks
Tracking
Check next quarter/annual:
- DRAM ASP / contract prices stay tight (falsify: two-quarter fade)
- LPDDR6 revenue/share and more SoC/OEM wins beyond Xiaomi 18 Fold
- Gross margin resilience if ASP softens (vs H1 ~84.8%)
- OCF vs CapEx for capacity/process upgrades
- Gen-5 process quals and auto LPDDR ramp
References
Key sources:
- CXMT H1 2026 report (SSE STAR, 2026-08-28): https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202608281828635976_1.pdf
- The Paper H1 summary: https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_33968133
- LPDDR6 MP / Xiaomi 18 Fold: https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-29/doc-inipyfhv5493634.shtml
- NBD on price/mkt (~¥58.6 / ¥3.98T): https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-08-28/4564392.html
- SSE: https://www.sse.com.cn/
- Related: Micron MU
Not investment advice; defer to latest filings. “Mass production” per company Weibo/filings; commercial scale per terminal attach.
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