VST · US
VST.US: Nuclear PPAs + merchant power at AI-load prices
Vistra Q2'26 revenue $4.02B, ongoing Adj. EBITDA $1.77B (+31%), EPS $0.76. Nuclear PPAs with Meta/AWS; Lotus gas fleet (~8.1 GW). Peers: CEG, NRG. Cross-link VRT.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/vst-us-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- Price (~8/21)
- USD 168.5
- Market cap
- USD 57.4B
- Q2 ongoing Adj. EBITDA
- USD 1.8B
- H1'26 revenue
- USD 9.7B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Vistra (VST) is a Fortune 500 integrated retail + generation company spanning gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and BESS from California to Maine. Q2'26 operating revenue $4.02B, net income $305M, ongoing Adj. EBITDA $1.77B (+31% YoY), EPS $0.76. H1 revenue $9.66B.
Thesis: Hold / AI-power beneficiary with volatility. Realized ERCOT/PJM power and capacity prices plus Lotus fleet drive EBITDA; nuclear PPAs with Meta and AWS secure multi-year carbon-free revenue. GAAP earnings distorted by $488M unrealized hedge MTM losses in Q2. Compare CEG (pure nuclear) and VRT (rack power/cooling).
Business
Model: Generate electricity (merchant + contracted) and sell through retail (TX + multi-state) — earnings = (spark spread + capacity + nuclear PTC/PPA) × MW − O&M, net of hedges.
Flagships: (1) Texas nuclear + gas + retail (Comanche Peak, ERCOT fleet); (2) East nuclear + gas (PJM); (3) Retail (~millions of customers).
Competitiveness: Integrated gen + retail hedge; nuclear PPA optionality for hyperscalers; 45U nuclear PTC monetization.
Strategy (12–24m): Execute Meta/AWS nuclear PPAs; ~2 GW new ERCOT gas; PJM nuclear uprates; integrate Lotus/Cogentrix (~8.1 GW acquired).
Entity / boundary: NYSE VST — Vistra Corp. consolidated; Lotus closed 2025–2026.
{
Strategy pillars
| Pillar | Content |
|---|---|
| Nuclear + hyperscaler PPAs | Long-term nuclear PPAs with Meta and AWS; PJM uprates; 45U PTC monetization |
| Gas fleet expansion | Lotus + Cogentrix acquisitions (~8.1 GW); ~2 GW additional ERCOT gas planned |
| Retail integration | Match generation to retail load; disciplined hedging program |
}
Value chain
Position: Power generator + retailer — mid/downstream in electricity value chain.
Upstream: gas/nuclear fuel, grid interconnection. Downstream: retail customers, wholesale ISO markets, hyperscaler PPAs.
Customer concentration: Retail diversified; wholesale PPAs with Meta/AWS are long-dated but concentrated on nuclear output.
{
Customer structure
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Retail customers | Millions (TX + multi-state) | Resi / C&I retail |
| Wholesale / PPA | Meta, AWS (nuclear PPAs) | Hyperscaler data-center power |
| Customer concentration | No single retail customer >10% | Wholesale PPAs are long-dated but concentrated |
}
Supply-chain risks: (1) Gas fuel delivery / pipeline constraints; (2) Nuclear fuel and LTSA availability — echoed in Risks.
Corporate events
{
Corporate events
| Date | Phase | Event | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-2026 | M&A | Lotus + Cogentrix gas acquisitions (~8.1 GW) | Expands dispatchable fleet for ERCOT/PJM |
| 2026-H1 | Contracts | Nuclear PPAs with Meta and AWS | Multi-year carbon-free power for AI DCs |
| 2025-2026 | Ops | Moss Landing BESS incident / Martin Lake outage | Insurance recoveries; ops largely restored |
}
Valuation
Price ~$168.50 / mkt ~$57B. Market prices nuclear PPA + ERCOT scarcity premium; GAAP P/E misleading due to hedge MTM.
{
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM approx.) | ~17x | GAAP EPS distorted by hedge MTM |
| EV / Adj. EBITDA | ~8–9x | Merchant power peer range |
| Dividend yield | ~1.0% | Growth + buybacks prioritized |
| Price read (~8/21) | ~$168.50 | Prices nuclear PPA + ERCOT scarcity |
}
{
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
}
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
{
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
}
{
Ongoing Adj. EBITDA margin · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
}
Financial health (§A.7)
{
Financial health (§A.7)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| OCF (H1'26) | Positive; hedging affects timing | Working-capital swings on derivatives |
| Net debt / EBITDA | ~2.5–3.0x (approx.) | Post-Lotus leverage manageable |
| Liquidity | Revolver + investment-grade | IG-rated IPP |
| Auditor / going concern | Unqualified; none noted | Per 10-Q |
}
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Operations
Q2 ongoing Adj. EBITDA +31% on higher realized energy/capacity prices and Lotus. Moss Landing BESS and Martin Lake outages largely remediated with insurance recoveries.
{
Key financials / segments
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 operating revenue | $4.02B | −6% | Mark-to-market on hedges |
| Q2'26 ongoing Adj. EBITDA | $1.77B | +31% | Realized power prices + Lotus |
| Q2'26 NI (common) | $258M | −8% | GAAP includes hedge MTM |
| Texas segment | ERCOT nuclear + gas + retail | — | Comanche Peak, gas fleet |
| East segment | PJM nuclear + gas | — | Nuclear PTC + capacity |
| Retail | TX + multi-state C&I/resi | — | Hedge against generation |
}
Competition
Peers: Constellation (CEG) (largest US nuclear), NRG (retail-heavy Texas).
Strengths: Nuclear + gas + retail integration; hyperscaler PPAs. Weaknesses: Merchant beta; operational incidents; hedge accounting noise.
{
Peer comparison
| Company | Position | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vistra (self) | IPP + retail | Adj. EBITDA ~44% | Nuclear + gas + retail integration | Hedge MTM volatility; incident risk |
| Constellation (CEG) | Pure-play nuclear | High nuclear margins | Largest US nuclear fleet; hyperscaler PPAs | Less gas/retail diversification |
| NRG Energy (NRG) | Retail-heavy IPP | Retail margin | Texas retail scale | Less nuclear exposure vs VST/CEG |
}
Management
{
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Jim Burke | 2024-01 | No change (succeeded Curt Morgan) |
| CFO | Kenneth Billings | 2023-03 | No change |
| Chair | Hunter Hunt | 2020-05 | No change |
}
24m changes: Jim Burke CEO since Jan 2024 ( succeeded Curt Morgan); otherwise stable.
Stability: Stable post-succession; CFO Billings long-tenured.
Outlook
Watch: ERCOT summer scarcity pricing, nuclear PPA execution, Lotus integration, hedge roll-offs. AI data-center load supports long-term power demand — see NVDA infra capex as demand anchor via VRT.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Conditions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | ERCOT spikes; PPAs expand; no outages | EBITDA beat + multiple expansion |
| Base | Prices normalize; PPAs on plan | Range-bound; hold core |
| Bear | Power crash + plant outage | EBITDA cut; 25%+ drawdown |
Risks
{
Risks (severity)
| Risk | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Power price / spark-spread collapse | 高 | Merchant EBITDA levered to gas/power |
| Operational / plant outage | 高 | Moss Landing, Martin Lake precedents |
| Hedge / MTM volatility | 中 | GAAP NI diverges from cash EBITDA |
| Regulatory / nuclear policy | 中 | PTC phase-out, licensing |
| Integration / acquisition execution | 中 | Lotus fleet integration |
}
{
}
Tracking list
- Quarterly ongoing Adj. EBITDA vs guide
- ERCOT/PJM realized power + capacity prices
- Nuclear PPA revenue recognition (Meta/AWS)
- Plant availability / forced outage rate
- Net debt post-Lotus integration
Confirm: EBITDA growth, PPA milestones, stable ops.
Falsify: Power price collapse, major outage, hedge losses crystallize.
References
- Vistra Q2 2026 results (2026-08-07) — https://investor.vistracorp.com/2026-08-07-Vistra-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results
- Vistra Form 10-Q — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001692819
- CEG research · VRT research
Not investment advice.
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