TSM · US
TSM.US: Q2'26 — advanced foundry monopoly
TSMC Q2 2026 revenue US$40.20B (+33.7% YoY, +12% QoQ), **67.7%** GM. Advanced nodes 77%, HPC 66%. Q3 guide US$44.6–45.8B; FY26 CapEx $60–64B. CoWoS and geopolitics remain discount facto
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/tsm-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price
- USD 240
- Mkt cap
- USD 1240.0B
- Revenue
- USD 160.8B
- Advanced node mix (≤7nm)
- 0.77
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
TSMC Q2 2026 revenue US$40.20B (+33.7% YoY, +12% QoQ), 67.7% GM. Advanced nodes 77%, HPC 66%. Q3 guide US$44.6–45.8B; FY26 CapEx $60–64B. CoWoS and geopolitics remain discount factors.
Business
Model: pure-play foundry. Flagships: 3nm/5nm; CoWoS advanced packaging. Edge: AI GPU/ASIC capacity pricing power. Strategy: FY26 revenue growth >+40% USD.
Value chain
Foundry monopoly mid-stack. Upstream: ASML EUV; downstream: NVDA/AVGO/AMD. Risks: CoWoS bottleneck, Taiwan geopolitics.
Valuation
ADR ~$240; advanced foundry premium vs geopolitical discount.
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| P/E（TTM 约） | 约 24x | 行情示意；以最新 EPS 为准 |
| P/B | 约 6.8x | 净资产口径随季报更新 |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 4.2% | 1/PE 近似 |
| 现价读法 | 约 240 USD | 截至 2026-08-26 包内 KPI |
~3y valuation/return series (PE, PB, dividend yield, trailing 1Y ann. return):
Valuation & return · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
~3y share price (quarterly close, split-adjusted approx.):
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ:
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
OCF and leverage per latest filings.
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏扩张 | 以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准 |
| 经营现金流 | 见最新 10-Q | AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲 |
| 净负债 / 现金 | 投资级或净现金 | 详见 table 与 IR |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | Current ratio / cash & equivalents |
| 审计意见 | 无保留（常规预期） | 以最新 10-K 为准 |
Operations
Q2 67.7% GM, 60.3% OM; Q3 guide mid ~$45.2B.
Key financial points
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 营收 | US$40.20B | +33.7% YoY | +12% QoQ |
| 毛利率 | 67.7% | Q2 | 定价权 |
| 先进节点 | 77% wafer rev | ≤7nm | AI 驱动 |
| HPC 占比 | 66% | mix | GPU/ASIC |
| Q3 指引 | US$44.6–45.8B | 公司 | CapEx $60–64B |
Competition
Market share vs peers (illustrative):
Peer comparison
| Company | Position | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC (self) | Adv. foundry ~90%+ | ~68% | N3/N2 + CoWoS | Taiwan concentration |
| Samsung Foundry | Distant #2 | Lower | GAA process bet | Yield / trust gap |
| Intel Foundry | Catch-up | Subscale | US capacity + CHIPS | External wins still thin |
Management
Core management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | C.C. Wei | 2018-06 | No change |
| CFO / Spokesperson | Wendell Huang | 2019 | No material change |
| Chair | Mark Liu (through transition) / board | — | Chair succession monitored; ops continuity via CEO |
Stability: CC Wei CEO / Mark Liu chair structure stable.
Outlook
Q3 guide delivery, CoWoS expansion, overseas fabs, HPC vs smartphone mix.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 需求/指引不及预期 | 高 | 地缘冲突、CoWoS 瓶颈、客户集中、CapEx 周期。 |
| 竞争加剧 | 中 | 同业扩产或降价挤压份额与毛利 |
| 供应链约束 | 中 | 关键零部件或产能瓶颈 |
| 估值与流动性 | 中 | 主题退潮或解禁带来回撤 |
| 政策与合规 | 低 | 出口管制、监管或审计关注 |
Tracking list
Verify on next earnings:
- Q3 $44.6–45.8B revenue guide and advanced mix
- CoWoS / advanced packaging capacity ramp
- FY26 $60–64B CapEx and customer mix
- Geopolitical risk premium & overseas fab progress
- HPC vs smartphone demand mix
References
- TSM IR / latest 10-Q — SEC EDGAR
- https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=TSM
- Cross-links in body [[article:]] refs
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.
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