SPCX · US
SPCX.US: SpaceX post-IPO — Starlink cash engine
SpaceX Jun 2026 IPO ~$135; now ~**$115** / ~**$1.5T** (~80x P/S). Starlink 2025 revenue $11.4B, ~$4.4B op profit; Musk ~82% votes. Controlled company + rich multiple + launch/satellite Ca
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/spcx-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price
- USD 115
- Mkt cap
- USD 1500.0B
- Revenue
- USD 45.0B
- Starlink rev (~ annual)
- USD 11.4B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
SpaceX Jun 2026 IPO ~$135; now ~$115 / ~$1.5T (~80x P/S). Starlink 2025 revenue $11.4B, ~$4.4B op profit; Musk ~82% votes. Controlled company + rich multiple + launch/satellite CapEx are core risks.
Business
Model: Falcon launch + Starlink broadband + Starship R&D. Flagships: Starlink 12M+ users; Falcon ~165 launches/yr. Edge: reusable cost curve. Strategy: Starship commercialization; gov vs commercial mix.
Value chain
Launch + satellite broadband. Upstream: rocket supply chain; downstream: gov, consumer, enterprise. Risks: launch success, dilution, lock-up.
Valuation
IPO $135 → now ~$115; mkt ~$1.5T. ~80x P/S; GOOGL SpaceX stake is cross-asset reference.
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| P/E（TTM 约） | 约 55x | 行情示意；以最新 EPS 为准 |
| P/B | 约 8x | 净资产口径随季报更新 |
| 盈利收益率 | 约 1.8% | 1/PE 近似 |
| 现价读法 | 约 115 USD | 截至 2026-08-26 包内 KPI |
~3y valuation/return series (PE, PB, dividend yield, trailing 1Y ann. return):
Valuation & return · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
~3y share price (quarterly close, split-adjusted approx.):
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ:
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
OCF and leverage per latest filings.
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏扩张 | 以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准 |
| 经营现金流 | 见最新 10-Q | AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲 |
| 净负债 / 现金 | 投资级或净现金 | 详见 table 与 IR |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | Current ratio / cash & equivalents |
| 审计意见 | 无保留（常规预期） | 以最新 10-K 为准 |
Operations
Starlink cash engine vs consolidated net loss ~$5B; track backlog, launch cadence, Starship progress.
Key financial points
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPO 定价 | $135 | 2026-06 | 现价 ~$115 |
| 市值 | ~$1.5T | ~80x P/S | 高估值受控公司 |
| Starlink 2025 营收 | $11.4B | 营业利润 ~$4.4B | 现金引擎 |
| Falcon 发射 | ~165 次/年 | 2025 | 发射 cadence |
| 投票权 | Musk ~82% | 受控 | 治理折价/溢价 |
Competition
Market share vs peers (illustrative):
Peer comparison
| Company | Position | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (self) | Launch + Starlink lead | Starlink OP rich | Reuse + vertical integrate | Consol. net loss; governance |
| Rocket Lab | Small launch | Improving | Public pure-play launch | Scale vs Falcon |
| ASTS / satcom peers | Direct-to-cell nascent | n/a | Spectrum narratives | Not Falcon-class ops |
| Legacy aero primes | Gov launch / sat | Mid-teens | Defense backlog | Cost vs reuse |
Management
Core management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO / CTO | Elon Musk | 2002 | No change; ~82% voting control |
| CFO | Bret Johnsen | 2019 | No material disclosed change |
| President / COO | Gwynne Shotwell | 2008 | No change — ops continuity anchor |
Stability: Musk absolute control; key-person IS strategy and capital allocation.
Outlook
Starlink growth, Starship commercialization, launch success, post-IPO dilution/lock-up.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 需求/指引不及预期 | 高 | 估值过高、发射失败、Starship 延迟、稀释、受控公司治理。 |
| 竞争加剧 | 中 | 同业扩产或降价挤压份额与毛利 |
| 供应链约束 | 中 | 关键零部件或产能瓶颈 |
| 估值与流动性 | 中 | 主题退潮或解禁带来回撤 |
| 政策与合规 | 低 | 出口管制、监管或审计关注 |
Tracking list
Verify on next earnings:
- Starlink / launch order backlog
- Post-IPO dilution and lock-up expiry
- Government vs commercial revenue mix
- Launch success rate and cost curve
- vs RKLB / LUNR competitive landscape
References
- SPCX IR / latest 10-Q — SEC EDGAR
- https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=SPCX
- Cross-links in body [[article:]] refs
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.
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