RBRK · US
RBRK.US: Cyber resilience + agent guardrails
Rubrik From backup/ransomware recovery to data+agent operations for the AI estate: Security Cloud for resilience, Agent Cloud for audit/guardrails/undo. FY26 revenue $1.32B (+48%) with ma
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/rbrk-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price
- USD 53
- Mkt cap
- USD 10.7B
- Revenue
- USD 1.3B
- Revenue YoY (approx)
- 0.5
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Rubrik From backup/ransomware recovery to data+agent operations for the AI estate: Security Cloud for resilience, Agent Cloud for audit/guardrails/undo. FY26 revenue $1.32B (+48%) with management citing a clear FCF inflection—high theme torque, but Agent Cloud must show up in ARR.
Business
Model: subscription data-security cloud. Flagships: Security Cloud (backup, identity, cross-cloud recovery); Agent Cloud (monitor/guardrails). Edge: ransomware-recovery franchise and data-plane visibility. Strategy: extend cyber resilience into mission control for trusted AI agents.
Value chain
Mid-stack data security; upstream public-cloud storage/identity; downstream IT/security and teams deploying agents. Risks: cloud API shifts; Commvault/Veeam/legacy backup; Agent Cloud still early.
Valuation
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TTM PE | N/A | 未接入具名行情源;TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数 |
| PB | N/A | 待最新净资产与市值核验 |
| 股息率 | N/A | 待分红公告 / IR |
| 现价语境 | 约 53 | RBRK · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准 |
Valuation & return · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
High-growth security; sensitive to subscription ARR and FCF quality—agent narrative can lead revenue.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ (reconstructed from public disclosures; not audit-line):
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏扩张 | 以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准 |
| 经营现金流 | 见最新 10-Q | AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲 |
| 净负债 / 现金 | 投资级或净现金 | 详见 table 与 IR |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | Current ratio / cash & equivalents |
| 审计意见 | 无保留(常规预期) | 以最新 10-K 为准 |
Operations
Volume: subscription logos and large deals; price: capacity/workload ASP; cost: cloud COGS + S&M. FY26 management highlights FCF inflection.
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 total rev | $1.32B | +48% | Year ended Jan 2026 |
| Subscription rev | $1.26B | +53% | Core mix |
| FCF | Inflecting + | — | Mgmt: record FCF year |
| Agent Cloud | Early | — | AI thesis hinge |
Competition
Peer strengths/weaknesses:
Peer map
| Company | Share/role | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik (self) | Data + agent ops | FCF turning | Recovery + Agent Cloud | Agent ARR unproven |
| Palo Alto | Platform + AIRS | FCF+ | AI security breadth | Less backup-native |
| CrowdStrike | Endpoint/XDR | FCF+ | Scale | Different data plane |
| Commvault (peer) | Backup | Mature | Installed base | Weaker AI story |
Management
Management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO / Chairman / Co-founder | Bipul Sinha | Founding | No material change |
| CFO | Kiran Choudary | long-tenured | Stable |
| Product | Agent Cloud team | 2025–26 | New SKU scaling |
Stability: Steady: founder-CEO in seat; org scaling around new SKUs.
Outlook
Track subscription ARR, net-new ARR, $100k+ customers, and whether Agent Cloud is disclosed separately.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
Tracking
Observable items that would confirm or falsify this note:
- Whether net-new subscription ARR stays elevated
- FCF quality after SBC
- First standalone Agent Cloud customer/ARR disclosure
References
Issuer / key sources:
- Latest company filings / IR (see issuer website)
- Exchange filings / SEC EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/edgar
- Related on-site notes via wiki-links in the body
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.
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