PLTR · US
PLTR.US: Q2'26 $1.94B (+93%) — US commercial +149% & Rule of 40
Palantir Q2 revenue $1.935B (+93%), US commercial $764M (+149%), 47% GAAP op. margin, Rule of 40 ~155%. FY26 revenue guide ~$8.15B midpoint. Multiple still rich.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/pltr-us-research#thesis
Snapshot
- Price (approx.)
- USD 155
- Mkt cap (approx.)
- USD 370.0B
- Revenue (approx.)
- USD 7.7B
- US commercial (Q)
- USD 764.0M
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
Palantir Q2 revenue $1.935B (+93% / +19% QoQ), US commercial $764M (+149%), US gov $809M (+90%). GAAP op. margin 47%, OCF $1.22B, Rule of 40 ~155%. FY26 guide raised. Elite growth; forward multiple leaves little room for deceleration.
Business
Model: AIP/Foundry/Apollo software + delivery. Flagships: US commercial AIP; US gov defense/civil; sovereign AI. Edge: Ontology + security architecture vs token vendors. Strategy: app layer and wallet share. Entity: Palantir Technologies Inc.
Value chain
Mid-stack enterprise/gov AI OS. Upstream: cloud/GPU (incl. NVIDIA); downstream: US enterprise and federal (~81% US revenue). High concentration. Risks: compute, cleared talent, export controls.
Valuation
Price context ~$155 / mkt ~$370B. Market prices duration of US-commercial triple-digit growth; any guide cut amplifies volatility.
Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TTM PE | N/A | 未接入具名行情源;TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数 |
| PB | N/A | 待最新净资产与市值核验 |
| 股息率 | N/A | 待分红公告 / IR |
| 现价语境 | 约 155 | PLTR · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准 |
~3y PE / PB / dividend yield / trailing 1Y ann. return. Points without a named market source are null:
Valuation & return · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Last ~8Q revenue and margins with YoY / QoQ. Missing quarters stay null:
Revenue · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Net cash; Q2 OCF/FCF ~$1.22B. No leverage stress. Audit expected unqualified.
Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健偏扩张 | 以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准 |
| 经营现金流 | 见最新 10-Q | AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲 |
| 净负债 / 现金 | 投资级或净现金 | 详见 table 与 IR |
| 流动性 | 充裕 | Current ratio / cash & equivalents |
| 审计意见 | 无保留(常规预期) | 以最新 10-K 为准 |
Operations
US revenue $1.573B (+115%); NDR ~157%; TCV $3.37B. Adj. op. income $1.19B (62%).
Key financial points
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 营收 | $1.935B | +93% | +19% QoQ |
| 美国商业 | $764M | +149% | AIP 主权叙事 |
| 美国政府 | $809M | +90% | 防务+民事 |
| GAAP OM | 47% | 利润率 | Rule of 40 ~155% |
| OCF | $1.22B | 63% 利润率 | 现金质量高 |
| FY26 指引 | ~$8.15B 中值 | 上修 | 美国商业 >+134% |
Competition
Peer strengths/weaknesses; share charts only when a named source exists.
Peer map
| Company | Share/role | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir (self) | AIP platform | ~80% | Ontology+gov trust | Valuation |
| Snowflake | Data cloud | High | Ecosystem | Different layer |
| Microsoft | Horizontal AI | High | Distribution | Less vertical |
Management
Management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Alex Karp | 2004 | No change |
| CFO | David Glazer | 2020 | No change |
| CTO | Shyam Sankar | — | No material change |
Stability: Alex Karp / Shyam Sankar stable; founder-brand key-person risk moderate.
Outlook
Track US commercial growth, NDR, large-deal TCV, multiple vs deceleration.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Demand/execution beats | Upside |
| Base | Trend continues | Hold/watch |
| Bear | Cycle/competition worsens | Drawdown/reassess |
Risks
| Risk | Severity | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 需求/指引不及预期 | 高 | 估值透支、客户集中、政府预算、竞争(云+模型实验室)、叙事退潮。 |
| 竞争加剧 | 中 | 同业扩产或降价挤压份额与毛利 |
| 供应链约束 | 中 | 关键零部件或产能瓶颈 |
| 估值与流动性 | 中 | 主题退潮或解禁带来回撤 |
| 政策与合规 | 低 | 出口管制、监管或审计关注 |
Tracking list
Verify on next earnings:
- FY26 ~$8.15B midpoint guide and US commercial +134% target
- US commercial triple-digit growth / NDR ~157%
- Rule of 40 (155% last print) and 47% GAAP op. margin
- Gov vs commercial mix and large-customer concentration
- Multiple sensitivity if growth decelerates
References
- Palantir Q2 2026 press release — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm
- Palantir IR — https://investors.palantir.com/
- Cross — Snowflake
Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.
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