Investor Research

NBIS · US

NBIS.US: Nebius — AI cloud ARR ramp & concentration

Nebius Q2'26 rev $582M (+454%), ARR ~$3.0B; FY26 $3.0–3.4B; 5GW power target; Meta up to ~$27B. See CRWV.

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Market snapshot

Price (~2026-08-12)
USD 259
Market cap (approx)
USD 65.0B
Q2'26 cont. ops net loss
USD -190.4M
Approx last-4Q group revenue
USD 1.4B
As of 2026-09-25

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Nebius — Post-reorg AI cloud: Q2'26 revenue $582M (+454% YoY), ARR ~$3.0B, FY26 guide $3.0–3.4B, contracted power target 5GW, Meta deal up to ~$27B. Growth cleaner vs CRWV leverage story, but Top3 ~59% concentration. See CRWV.

Business

See Chinese pack for full operating detail; model is NeoCloud / AI infrastructure as described in §thesis. Flagship, competitiveness, 12–24m strategy, and entity boundary are mirrored in content/zh-CN.md.

Strategy

Strategy
Pillar / phaseDetail
0–12m: 兑现 MSFT 批次 + 连接电力KPI: MW 上线 · 营收 · 状态: 进行中
12–24m: Meta Vera Rubin 产能KPI: 2027 上线 · 状态: 建设中
融资: 预付款 + 可复制 ABSKPI: CapEx 自筹比例 · 状态: 关键
As of 2026-09-25

Value chain

Midstream GPU cloud or AI campus landlord (APLD). Upstream: NVIDIA GPUs, power, shells. Downstream: frontier labs / hyperscalers. Customer concentration and ≥2 supply risks detailed in ZH and tables.

Customers

Customers
CustomerConcentration/roleNote
Microsoft / Meta合同骨架；收入集中投资级长约
Reflection / Cohere 等Q2 大单云原生客户
Top3 合计~59% Q2 收入集中度风险
As of 2026-09-25

Corporate events

Material 24–36m events (IPO/financing/major contracts/campus RFS) — see table_corporate_events and ZH narrative.

Corporate events

Corporate events
DatePhaseEventMeaning
2024–2025公司行动重组聚焦 AI 云报表边界变化
2026-03公司行动Meta 最高 ~$27B 协议backlog 跃升
2026-Q2/Q3公司行动资产抵押融资 ~$775M融资框架可复制
As of 2026-09-25

Valuation

Prices ~2026-08-12. Loss-making PE N/A; prefer backlog/ARR/GW and financing lenses.

Valuation snapshot

Valuation snapshot
MetricValueRead
市值 / FY26 营收 mid~$65B / ~$3.2B高 PS，定价完美执行
市值 / YE ARR mid~$65B / ~$8B仍贵，看 2027 产能
PEN/A亏损/高增长
股息0再投资
As of 2026-09-25

Valuation & returns · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

PE=0 = N/A while loss-making; PB/returns illustrative — prefer ARR/contracts and PS. · As of 2026-09-25

Share price · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Quarterly close reconstruction (illustrative, split-adjusted approx.) · As of 2026-09-25

Financial trend (~24m)

Revenue · last 8 quarters

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Q2'26/H1'26/Q2'25 from company materials; some interim quarters interpolated. · As of 2026-09-25

Margin · last 8 quarters

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Near-term ~ group Adj. EBITDA margin (~40%+ in Q2'26); earlier illustrative. · As of 2026-09-25

Financial health (§A.7)

Financial health (§A.7)

Financial health (§A.7)
ItemValueNote
经营现金流披露强调强劲（H1 叙事）以最新 6-K 为准
有息债 vs 现金现金 ~$8B；开始资产抵押债相对 CRWV 杠杆叙事更轻
流动性预付款 + 现金 + facilityCapEx 仍巨大
审计 / 持续经营以 20-F 为准关注重组后口径
As of 2026-09-25

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Reconstructed from public filings (illustrative; attributable NI) · As of 2026-09-25

Operations

Volume (MW/GPUs), price ($/GPU-hour or lease), cost (depreciation/interest/power). Segment snapshot:

Key financial / operating points

Key financial / operating points
ItemValueYoY/chgNote
Q2'26 集团营收$582M+454%+46% QoQ
AI 云 ARR~$3.0B—季末年化
Adj. EBITDA~$236M转正margin ~40%+
FY26 营收指引$3.0–3.4B重申ARR $7–9B
签约电力目标5GW YE26上修连接 0.8–1GW
As of 2026-09-25

Competition

Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Industry reports + public disclosures (illustrative estimate) · As of 2026-09-25

Peer comparison

Peer comparison
CompanyPositioningMargin profileStrengthWeakness
CRWV规模最大纯 NeoCloud高 Adj. EBITDA%backlog 体量杠杆更高
IREN电力自有过渡预付覆盖 GPU CapEx矿残留
APLD房东租赁长租约非运营云
As of 2026-09-25

Management

Key management (~24m)

Key management (~24m)
RoleNameSince24m change
CEOArkady Volozh创始/重组后持续任职
CFODado Alonso—公开电话会活跃
基础设施Andrey Korolenko 等—产能叙事核心
As of 2026-09-25

Outlook

Track next print: delivery MW, contract conversion, interest/financing, customer concentration.

Scenarios

Scenario Condition Implication
Bull On-time delivery, financing OK Multiple expansion
Base Guide roughly met Theme volatility
Bear Delays / cuts / refinancing stress Dilution + de-rate

Risks

Risks

Risks
RiskSeverityMitigation
客户集中（MSFT/META）高新增大单与云客户
电力/站点建设延期高多地区站点
估值透支执行中高指引兑现
高 CapEx 与稀释中高预付款/ABS
地缘/合规残留叙事中重组后主体披露
As of 2026-09-25

Tracking

  1. Contracted backlog / ARR / GW vs live capacity
  2. Power and RFS milestones
  3. Debt, interest, prepayments
  4. Guide vs actual revenue
  5. Confirm: delivery slope; Falsify: major customer cancel or failed refinance

References

Primary IR/SEC links listed in content/zh-CN.md #references. Also NeoCloud universe.

Not investment advice. Figures from public disclosures; some series reconstructed.

Disclaimer: For research information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.

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