FLY.US: Responsive launch + lunar landing capability

Snapshot

Price

USD 50

Mkt cap

USD 3.5B

Revenue

USD 160.0M

Revenue YoY acceleration

1.63

As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)

Thesis

Firefly Aerospace 2025-IPO launch/lunar company: Alpha-class launch + Blue Ghost lunar success lift narrative and revenue jump, but short history and deeply negative OCF—execution and funding are the core tensions.

Business

Model: launch, spacecraft, lunar landers. Flagships: Alpha (+ follow-ons); Blue Ghost; responsive launch. Edge: successful soft lunar landing; responsive launch pitch. Strategy: raise cadence; grow gov/commercial lunar & orbital missions.

Value chain

Mid-stack launch/lunar; upstream engines/structures/range; downstream NASA CLPS, defense, commercial payloads. Risks: engine/structure capacity; licenses/slots; mission-failure reputation.

Valuation

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)

Valuation snapshot (multi-lens)

Metric	Value	Note
TTM PE	N/A	未接入具名行情源；TTM 盈利≤0 或未核验时不填造倍数
PB	N/A	待最新净资产与市值核验
股息率	N/A	待分红公告 / IR
现价语境	约 50	FLY · 以包内 kpi_snapshot 时点为准

Valuation & return · ~3y

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Narrative growth stock; extremely sensitive to mission outcomes and scaling revenue off a small base.

Financial trend (~24 months)

Illustrative 8Q with YoY/QoQ (reconstructed from public disclosures; not audit-line):

Revenue · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Gross margin · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Net income · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Financial health (§A.7)

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)

Financial health (OCF / debt / liquidity / audit)

Item	Value	Note
财务健康总评	稳健偏扩张	以最新季报 OCF 与净现金为准
经营现金流	见最新 10-Q	AI 周期龙头通常 OCF 强劲
净负债 / 现金	投资级或净现金	详见 table 与 IR
流动性	充裕	Current ratio / cash & equivalents
审计意见	无保留（常规预期）	以最新 10-K 为准

Operations

Volume: launches/landers; price: mission contracts; cost: R&D, test, launch ops. Deeply negative OCF.

Key financials

Key financials

Item	Value	YoY	Note
FY2025 rev (approx)	~$160M	+163% vs FY24	Sharp acceleration
FY2024 rev	~$61M	—	Small base
OCF	Deeply negative	—	Investment phase
IPO	2025-08	—	Short public history

Competition

Peer strengths/weaknesses:

Market share trend · last 8Q

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Peer market share comparison (latest est.)

Interactive chart available in the reader.

Peer map

Peer map

Company	Share/role	Margin	Strength	Weakness
Firefly (self)	Launch+lunar	Neg	Lunar success story	Scale/cash burn
Rocket Lab	Launch+systems	Neg OM	Higher cadence/public track	Neutron focus
Intuitive Machines	Lunar CLPS	Neg	CLPS heritage	Landings risk
SpaceX	Heavy launch	Scale	Dominant cadence	Different league

Management

Management (24m)

Management (24m)

Role	Name	Since	24m change
CEO	Company leadership	post-IPO	Monitor disclosures
CFO	Finance leadership	post-IPO	Monitor disclosures
Mission ops	Launch/lunar leads	ongoing	Execution critical

Stability: Transition: newly public—verify exec changes against latest proxies.

Outlook

Track launch count, follow-on lunar contracts, cash runway, dilution.

Scenarios

Risks

Not investment advice; defer to latest company filings.

Tracking

Check next earnings for:

1. Next-quarter revenue & margin vs guide
2. OCF vs CapEx / payout
3. Competitive share shifts
4. Valuation vs historical mid-cycle
5. Key policy / supply-chain variables

Confirm: guide hit, share stable, OCF matches earnings.
Disconfirm: guide cut, share loss, leverage stress.

References

1. FLY IR / latest 10-Q — SEC EDGAR
2. https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=FLY
3. Cross-links in body [[article:]] refs

Not investment advice. Missing valuation points are N/A/null; defer to latest filings and named market data.