601919.SH, 1919.HK · A-shares · Hong Kong
601919.SH / 1919.HK COSCO: freight soft, dividend + Q1 check
COSCO 2025 NI ¥30.868B (−37%); Q1'26 rev ¥51.797B, NI ¥5.877B (−49.75%), leverage ~40.9%. Thesis: freight beta + shareholder returns.
Cite a section with a deep link, e.g. /en/r/cosco-601919-research#thesis
Market snapshot
- A-share price
- CNY 15.63
- Mkt cap
- CNY 239.3B
- 2025 parent NI
- CNY 30.9B
- Q1'26 parent NI
- CNY 5.9B
As-of 2026-09-25 (weekly refresh; equities aligned to §A. Missing series are N/A/null. Not investment advice.)
Thesis
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SH / 1919.HK) is a global container shipping platform. 2025 revenue ¥219.504B (−6.14%), parent NI ¥30.868B (−37.13%)—off peak but still supporting ~¥15.4B cash dividends. Q1'26 revenue ¥51.797B, parent NI ¥5.877B (−49.75%), EBIT ~¥8.763B; leverage ~40.9%, cash ~¥149.7B. A-share ~¥15.6 / mkt ~¥239B. Thesis = freight beta + shareholder returns, not growth. H1'26 not yet filed as of 2026-08-25.
Business
Model: container liner + terminals; freight-rate cyclical. Flagships: liner (core), terminals/logistics, dividends/buybacks. Edge: scale/network + SOE balance-sheet resilience. Strategy: alliance/fleet renewal, green fuel compliance—near-term is freight, not a growth story. Entity: 601919.SH / 1919.HK.
Value chain
Midstream ocean carrier. Upstream: shipyards/fuel/ports. Downstream: shippers/forwarders. Concentration is more to freight indices than named top customers. Supply risks: port congestion/geopolitics; newbuild deliveries.
Valuation
Use mid-cycle earnings and dividend yield, not peak P/E.
Valuation snapshot
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| P/E（静态约） | 约 7.8x | 市值约 2390 亿 / 2025 归母 308.68 亿 |
| P/E（Q1 年化粗算） | 约 10x+ | 58.77×4 粗算，运价下行期偏高估风险 |
| 股息率（约） | 约 6%+ | 按约 154 亿分红 / 市值粗算 |
| P/B（约） | 约 1.0x | 归母权益约 2357 亿（Q1 末） |
| 现价读法 | A 股约 15.6 元 | 运价 beta + 分红；非成长股逻辑 |
Valuation & returns · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Share price · ~3y
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial trend (~24 months)
Revenue · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Gross margin (est.) · last 8 quarters
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Net income · last 8Q
Interactive chart available in the reader.
Financial health (§A.7)
Solid — ample cash, lower leverage; profits track freight downcycle.
Financial health
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 财务健康总评 | 稳健 | 现金充裕、杠杆下降；利润随运价回落 |
| 经营现金流（Q1'26） | 111.25 亿元 | 现金及等价物约 1497 亿 |
| 资产负债率 | 40.90%（Q1 末） | 较高峰期进一步下降 |
| 流动性 / 股东回报 | 分红 + 回购注销 | 2025 中期曾派 0.56 元/股；全年约 50% 分红指引 |
| 审计意见 | 常规预期 | 以最新年报为准；季报未经审计 |
Operations
Key financials
| Item | Value | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 营收 | 2195.04 亿 | −6.14% | 运价回落 |
| 2025 归母 | 308.68 亿 | −37.13% | 高峰回撤 |
| 2026Q1 营收 | 517.97 亿 | — | 一季报 |
| 2026Q1 归母 | 58.77 亿 | −49.75% | EBIT 约 87.63 亿 |
| 2025 拟现金分红 | 约 154 亿 | — | 约 50% 分红比例 |
| 货币资金（Q1 末） | 约 1497 亿 | — | OCF 111.25 亿 |
Competition
Vs Maersk/MSC and OOCL. Strengths: scale + dividends/cash. Weaknesses: extreme freight beta; oversupply price wars.
Peer comparison
| Company | Share / position | Margin | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 中远海控 601919 | 全球集运前列 | 周期下行中 | 船队规模+分红能力 | 运价 beta 极强 |
| MSC（非上市参照） | 全球运力第一梯队 | — | 运力规模 | 非上市难比估值 |
| 马士基 | 全球集运巨头 | 周期同步 | 物流一体化 | 同样运价敏感 |
| 东方海外 0316.HK | 集团内姊妹 | 相近 | 航线协同 | 同样周期暴露 |
Management
COSCO SHIPPING Group system; officers per annual report. Stability: steady; price moves with freight and payout expectations.
Key management (24m)
| Role | Name | Since | 24m change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 董事长 | 见年报（中远海运集团） | 披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动（以公告为准） |
| 总经理 | 见年报 | 披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动（以公告为准） |
| 财务负责人 | 见年报 | 披露任职 | 期间无重大披露变动（以公告为准） |
Outlook
Track SCFI, alliances, newbuilds, and whether H1'26 + interim dividend keep ~50% payout discipline.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Freight re-inflates; payouts hold | Earnings + yield |
| Base | Freight soft; dividends steady | High-yield cyclical hold |
| Bear | Deep freight drop + payout cut | Earnings/valuation air-pocket |
Risks
Risk table
| Risk | Severity | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 运价继续下行 | 高 | Q1 归母已同比近腰斩 |
| 新船交付加剧供给 | 高 | 压制运价中枢 |
| 全球贸易 / 地缘航线 | 中 | 港口拥堵与航线中断 |
| 分红比例下调 | 中 | 配置逻辑依赖股东回报 |
| 燃油与碳成本 | 低 | 成本端扰动 |
Tracking list
- SCFI / spot freight vs unit revenue
- H1'26 NI and interim payout ratio
- Newbuild delivery / capacity supply
- Leverage and cash balances
- Buyback/cancellation cadence
References
- COSCO A-share filings — http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/stock?stockCode=601919&orgId=gssh0601919
- Q1'26 report PDF — http://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-30/1225261386.PDF
- Sina/Xinhua on Q1 NI — https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-04-30/doc-inhwftwn6337796.shtml
- SCFI — https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp
- HKEX — https://www.hkexnews.hk/
Not investment advice. Until H1'26 files, rely on annual + Q1.
Comments
Sign in to comment